Social Status and the Spread of Pandemics

流行病心理学的一个普遍规律是，流行病主要通过社会地位较低的人传播。根据这一普遍规律，我们预测它只适用于大流行病的后期阶段。相比之下，在关键的早期阶段，社会地位较高的人应该推动流行病的传播。为什么？为什么？我们的状态依赖性流行病传播阶段敏感模型说明如下。在后来的大流行阶段，社会地位较低的人推动了传播，因为在这些阶段，传播预防规范已经到位，社会地位较高的人有特权比社会地位较低的人更彻底地遵循这些规范（例如，地位较低的工作的性质往往使身体上的距离变得困难）。在大流行的早期阶段，社会地位较高的人应该推动传播，因为在这些阶段，预防传播的规范尚未到位，社会地位较高的人拥有社交网络，这使他们面临感染和传播新病毒的特别风险。具体来说，地位较高的社交网络因其巨大的异质性和灵活性而脱颖而出（例如，社会地位较高的人更多地为工作和娱乐而旅行，因此，会遇到大量不同的和新奇的人）。在对两次大流行病（COVID-19，1918/19西班牙流感）和三个国家（美国，英格兰，德国），我们发现了我们的相敏模型的证据。然而，迫切需要更多的研究来获得对我们模型的更深入的理论理解，并自信地得出政策建议。有三个研究问题需要特别注意：（RQ 1）我们模型的初步证据仅依赖于区域层面的COVID-19数据。这些证据能推广到个人层面吗？为了找到答案，我们将使用德国社会经济小组的全国代表性调查数据和网络抓取的美国死亡率数据，并应用事件发生时间分析。(RQ2)我们模型的初步证据仅依赖于相对较早爆发大流行的国家的数据。这一证据是否适用于那些发病较晚的国家，即那些有更多时间为大流行做准备的国家？为了找到答案，我们将为来自四大洲的18个国家编制一个每日区域COVID-19感染率数据库，并应用增长曲线模型。(RQ3)我们模型的初步证据仅依赖于第一波COVID-19的数据。这些证据是否可以推广到后来的浪潮中，在这些浪潮中，病毒对任何社会阶层来说都不再是新鲜事？为了找到答案，我们将暂时扩大用于回答RQ 2的数据，以便它也涵盖所有18个国家的第二次大流行波。总体而言，拟议的研究将使我们能够验证和扩展我们的状态依赖性流行病传播的阶段敏感模型，加深我们对社会地位和流行病传播的理论理解，并根据强有力的经验证据得出政策建议。

A universal rule in the psychology of pandemics states that pandemics spread primarily through people of lower social status. Challenging this universal rule, we predict that it holds true for later phases of pandemics only. At the critical early phases, by contrast, people of higher social status should drive pandemic spread. Why? Our phase-sensitive model of status-dependent pandemic spread states the following. In later pandemic phases, people of lower social status drive the spread because in those phases spread-prevention norms are in place, which people of higher social status have the privilege to follow much more thoroughly than people of lower social status (e.g., the nature of lower-status jobs often renders physical distancing difficult). In earlier pandemic phases, people of higher social status should drive the spread, because in those phases spread-prevention norms are not yet in place and people of higher social status possess social networks, which put them at particular risk to catch and spread novel viruses. Specifically, higher-status social networks stand out for their large heterogeneity and flexibility (e.g., people of higher social status travel much more for work and pleasure and, thus, meet large numbers of diverse and novel people). In preliminary research on two pandemics (COVID-19, 1918/19 Spanish Flu) and three nations (U.S., England, Germany) we found evidence for our phase-sensitive model. Yet, more research is urgently needed to gain a deeper theoretical understanding of our model and to confidently derive policy recommendations. Three research questions require particular attention: (RQ1) The preliminary evidence for our model relies on region-level COVID-19 data only. Does that evidence generalize to the individual level? To find out, we will use nationally representative survey data from the German Socioeconomic Panel and web-scraped U.S. mortality data and apply time-to-event-analysis. (RQ2) The preliminary evidence for our model relies on data from nations with a comparatively early pandemic onset only. Does that evidence generalize to nations with later onsets—nations that had more time to prepare for the pandemic? To find out, we will compile a database of daily regional COVID-19 infection rates for 18 nations from four continents and apply growth curve modeling. (RQ3) The preliminary evidence for our model relies on data from the first wave of COVID-19 only. Does that evidence generalize to later waves—waves in which the virus is no more novel to any societal stratum? To find out, we will temporally expand the data used to answer RQ2 so that it will also cover the second pandemic waves in all 18 nations. Overall, the proposed research will allow us to verify and extend our phase-sensitive model of status-dependent pandemic spread, to deepen our theoretical understanding of social status and the spread of pandemics more generally, and to derive policy recommendations based on strong empirical evidence.