Rebellion, elections and the pandemic in the Central African Republic: Covid-19 and its impact on deep-seated patterns of governance

疫情蔓延到中非共和国(CAR)时，正值公民通过执行和平协议和举行全国选举来结束该国冲突的里程碑。2020年底爆发了一场新的叛乱，阻碍了该国一些最贫困地区的医疗服务，这些地区在人类发展指数上一直排名倒数第二。叛乱、选举和遏制新冠肺炎疫情的相互作用，已成为决定CAR能否克服其扼杀政治和经济进步的根深蒂固的治理模式的关键三角。这些模式是外包治理、边缘化的边缘和多元化的暴力。民众已经有了自己的发言权：他们受够了叛军，已经准备好进行民主改革。2019年的和平协议和2020年的选举本应翻开新的一页。然而，这场大流行垄断了国际关注，使叛军能够在雷达下飞行，并允许各国政府使用紧急措施。目前，和平协议被违反的程度如此荒谬，以至于叛军与几年前被他们推翻的前独裁者博齐泽达成协议，以加强他们对现任政府的武装斗争。选举如此令人担忧，以至于政府的合法性处于低谷，导致它参与了针对叛军的广受欢迎但有风险的行动，这远远超出了他们的军队的能力。一直以来，应对疫情完全留给了国际非政府组织(以及他们得到国际补贴的国家同行)，由于战斗，他们不得不放弃了许多城镇。尽管如此，这个故事只写了一半。与几个值得信赖、高效的国家合作伙伴一起务实、国际协调地处理这一大流行，导致了相对较低的感染率(如果数字可信的话)。治疗疫情再次表明，CAR对国际援助的依赖程度，以及政府或叛军愿意为其公民提供服务的程度有多低。因此，在今后几个月里，这一流行病可能成为挑战现有秩序的导火索，而不是被用作继续推行敲诈勒索政策的工具。因此，我们不禁要问，新冠肺炎疫情在多大程度上深化或破坏了CAR的治理模式？为了研究在国家一级大流行期间不断变化的治理模式，我们对来自政府、联合国代表团、非政府组织和民间社会的关键利益攸关方进行了电话采访。在地方一级，我们使用完善的网络在两个外围地区和首都远程收集数据。综合起来，这些数据来源将使我们能够观察到，在2019年至2021年期间，新冠肺炎大流行是如何挑战CAR根深蒂固的治理模式的，这一模式跨越了和平协议、选举、大流行、叛乱的复发以及未来的事态发展。

The pandemic reaches the Central African Republic (CAR) just when citizens were passing milestones for ending the country's conflicts through the implementation of a peace agreement and holding national elections. A new rebellion broke out in late 2020 that hindered medical access to some of the most impoverished areas of this country that continuously ranks second to last on the Human Development Index. An interplay of rebellion, elections and containing the Covid-19 pandemic have become the critical triangle deciding whether CAR can overcome its deep-seated patterns of governance that are stifling political and economic progress. These patterns are outsourced governance, marginalized peripheries and pluralized violence. The population has had its say: it is fed up with the rebels and it is ready for democratic change. A peace agreement in 2019 and elections in 2020 were supposed to turn the page. However, the pandemic monopolized international attention, enabled rebels to fly under the radar, and allowed governments to use emergency measures. Currently, the peace agreement has been violated to such absurd degrees that rebels have struck an agreement with former autocrat Bozizé, whom they had toppled years ago to strengthen their armed struggle against the current government. The elections were so fraught that the government’s legitimacy is at a low, leading it to engage in popular, but risky maneuverers against the rebels that are far beyond their military’s capacity. All the while, dealing with the pandemic is entirely left to international non-governmental organisations (and their internationally subsidised national counterparts), who have had to abandon many towns due to the fighting. Despite all this the story is only written halfway. The pragmatic, internationally coordinated handling of the pandemic with a few trustworthy, efficient national partners has led to relatively low infection rates (if numbers are credible). Treating the pandemic has again shown how dependent CAR is on international aid and how little the government or rebels are willing to provide services to their citizens. Over the coming months the pandemic could thus become a trigger that challenges the existing order rather than being used as a tool to continue extortionist policies. We thus ask, in how far has the Covid-19 pandemic deepened or ruptured CAR’s governance patterns? To study changing patterns of governance during the pandemic on a national level we conduct telephone interviews with key stakeholders from government, the UN mission, NGOs, and civil society. On a local level we use our well-established networks to collect data remotely in two peripheral localities and the capital. Combined, these data sources will allow us to observe how the Covid-19 pandemic challenges CAR’s deep-seated patterns of governance in the period of 2019 to 2021, which spans a peace agreement, elections, a pandemic, recurrence of rebellion, and developments to come.