Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Future Cities with Mainstay Function of Japan on the Basis of Movement Prediction of the Population

在日本的支柱城市，如东京都市圈，人口过度集中的趋势持续增加。地震灾害的各个方面容易受到时代变迁的社会影响，日本近年来的老龄化社会趋势产生了新的灾害方面。考虑到社会的时代变化，未来城市的地震易损性应进行评估。本研究项目提出了一种定量的地震易损性评价方法，为2030年日本未来主体功能城市的发展提供参考。(1)通过主成分分析定量提取对地震灾害影响较大的重要因子。在这里，地震灾害被认为是直接损害（人体、建筑物等）和间接损害（生命线、受害者无法返回家园等）。(2)以1995年小古根-南部地震的实际震害为例，验证了基于主成分分析的地震易损性评价方法。(3)对比了2030年日本现有城市和未来城市的地震易损性评价。具有主体功能的评价对象城市为东京都市圈、名古屋经济区、大阪经济区和福冈经济区。(4)采用事件树分析法对东京湾千叶沿岸中部工业区的石油化工综合设施进行地震灾害评价。(5)考虑地震动的相位差特征，提出了地震危险性评价的基本信息，即强震地震动预测。在此基础上，进一步研究了水平和垂直地震动同时输入作用对基础隔震高层建筑地震反应特性的影响。

The tendency of overconcentration has continued to increase in the cities with mainstay function of Japan, as Tokyo Metropolitan area. The aspects of earthquake disaster are apt to be affected by social change with the times, and the recent tendency of aging society in Japan has produced new aspects of disaster. The seismic vulnerability should be assessed for future cities under consideration of social change with the times. In this research project, a quantitative method of seismic vulnerability assessment is proposed to develop for the future cities with mainstay function of Japan in 2030.(1)The Important factors with large effects on earthquake disaster are extracted quantitatively by principal component analysis. Here, earthquake disasters are considered for direct damage (human bodies, buildings and so on) and indirect damage (lifelines, victims unable to return home and so on).(2) A method of seismic vulnerability assessment on the basis of principal component analysis is examined by actual damage due to the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake.(3) Earthquake vulnerability assessments for the present cities and future cities of Japan in 2030 are compared. The object cities with mainstay function for assessment are Tokyo Metropolitan area, Nagoya economic area, Osaka economic area and Fukuoka economic area.(4) Seismic damage assessment of petrochemical complex is proposed by event tree analysis for the central Chiba coastal industrial zone of Tokyo Bay.(5) The basic information for seismic risk assessment, that is, strong earthquake ground motion prediction, is proposed by considering phase difference characteristics of ground motion. Further, referring this research fruits, the effects of simultaneous action input from horizontal and vertical ground motion are studied on earthquake response characteristics of base isolated high-rise building.