Should I Stay or Should I Go? State Exits from Regional Organizations

英国退出欧盟(EU)最近成为头条新闻，引起了公众和学者的大量关注。英国退欧并不是唯一一个成员国退出区域组织(RO)的例子。事实上，在1945-2020年间，有49次退出ROS。研究这些撤军很重要，因为它们可能损害国际合作，并可能在较长时间内引发进一步解体，甚至可能危及我们所知的多边世界秩序。并不是所有的州都同样倾向于离开ROS。事实上，退出ROS主要是由较小的州推动的。此外，虽然一些区域组织经历了多次退出(例如东部和南部非洲共同市场)，但其他区域组织只经历了一次退出(例如欧盟)，而其他区域组织从未失去成员(例如南方共同市场)。虽然有关于从iOS的状态出口的工作，但重大发现不会传播到ROS。到目前为止，我们还不知道各州为什么离开RO，为什么一些RO比其他RO受到更多的撤资，尽管理解退出对社会和学者都非常重要。因此，本项目试图揭示ROS国家退出现象背后的原因，并解决以下研究问题：(1)为什么一些国家比其他国家更倾向于退出ROS？(2)为什么一些RO比其他国家更倾向于国家退出？

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU) recently made headlines, attracting a lot of public and scholarly attention. BREXIT is not the only instance in which a member state exited a regional organization (RO). In fact, there are 49 withdrawals from ROs between the years 1945-2020. Studying these withdrawals is important as they can harm international cooperation and potentially trigger further disintegration in the longer run that could even endanger the multilateral world order as we know it. Not all states are equally inclined to leave ROs. In fact, the withdrawals from ROs are mainly driven by smaller states. Also, while some ROs were subject to several withdrawals (e.g. Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa), others experienced just one exit (e.g. the EU) and yet others never lost members (e.g. MERCOSUR). Whereas there is work on state exits from IOs, major findings, do not travel to ROs. As of yet, we do not know why states leave ROs and why some ROs are subject to more withdrawals than others, although understanding exits is of great importance for society and scholars alike. Thus, this project seeks to uncover the reasons behind the phenomenon of state exits from ROs and addresses the research questions: (1) Why are some states more inclined to exit ROs than others? (2) Why are some ROs more prone to state withdrawals than others?