Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems

预测复杂经济体系的能力，对于从峰值表现中受益，以及为低迷做好准备和防范，至关重要。该项目旨在使用严格、尖端、灵活的计量经济学方法，对驱动这类系统的隐藏过程做出重大发现。由此产生的结果将是提高对重要经济现象的理解和预测能力，例如价格序列的波动、金融体系的极端(高风险)行为以及商业周期的转折点。这些发现将通过发表的论文和在一个重要的国际会议上发表的演讲来传播。还将与法国建立正在进行的电子研究联系。

The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as volatility in price series, extremal (risky) behaviour of financial systems, and turning points of the business cycle. Discoveries will be disseminated through published papers and presentations at a major international conference. Ongoing e-research links with France will also be established.