The Political Economy of Financing Large-Scale Transformations: Off-Balance-Sheet Fiscal Agencies in Wars, Reconstruction, and the Green Transition

绿色转型是我们这个时代最大的挑战——政治上期望的大规模物质资本存量转型，以达到净零碳排放。我们大致知道技术上需要发生什么，但有一个问题仍未解决：这笔钱应该从哪里来？既定的答案——利用税收、国库借款或央行货币创造的三重机制——是不完整的。相反，公共当局需要动员整个“货币架构”来完成这项任务。这个跨学科项目的指导假设是，表外财政机构（obfa）——公私混合机构，独特地结合了货币政策和财政政策的痕迹——在过去的大规模转型中发挥了关键作用，最适合在绿色转型中再次发挥作用。obfa在过去转型融资中的作用尚未得到充分研究和充分理解。这个研究小组将提出一个明确的关于大规模转型是如何融资的描述，该描述是历史信息和使用现代信贷货币的最新理论。该项目的模块一（经济史）需要对20世纪英国、美国和德国的战争和重建融资进行案例研究。通过关键宏观金融的视角，该小组将研究历史上的货币结构（obfa与财政部、央行以及银行和非银行金融机构等私人机构相交的环环相扣的资产负债表网络）是如何在系统性融资过程中被obfa动员起来的，这一过程需要三个不同的阶段：初始资产负债表扩张；长期融资;最后是收缩。单元二（国际政治经济学）将把这些发现与今天联系起来。通过历史数据集，我们将测试obfa是否是治理大规模转型的必要条件，并评估其对民主治理的影响。利用历史上的最佳实践，该小组将进一步制定利用obfa为绿色转型提供资金的建议，并将与利益相关者合作，探讨其在当今货币架构下的可行性。模块三的作用是将调查结果传播给广泛的受众，并最大限度地发挥影响。为此，该小组将开发一种创新的互动在线工具，并出版一本关于为大规模转型融资的政治经济学书籍。

The Green Transition—a politically desired large-scale transformation of physical capital stock to reach net-zero carbon emissions—is the greatest challenge of our age. We broadly know what technically needs to happen, but one question remains unsettled: Where should the money come from to pay for it? The established answer—using the triad of taxation, treasury borrowing, or central bank money creation—is incomplete. Rather, public authorities need to mobilise the entire ‘monetary architecture’ for this task. The guiding hypothesis of this interdisciplinary project is that off-balance-sheet fiscal agencies (OBFAs)—hybrid public-private institutions which uniquely combine traces of monetary and fiscal policy—played a crucial role in past large-scale transformations and are best suited to do so again in the Green Transition. OBFAs’ role in financing past transformations is under-researched and not well understood. This research group will advance a definitive account of how large-scale transformations were financed that is historically informed and uses an up-to-date theory of modern credit money. Module I of the project (Economic History) entails case studies on war and reconstruction finance in the UK, the US, and Germany in the 20th century. Via the lens of Critical Macro-Finance, the group will study how historic monetary architectures—webs of interlocking balance sheets in which OBFAs intersect with treasuries, central banks, and private institutions such as banks and non-bank financial institutions—were mobilised by OBFAs in a systemic financing process that entails three different phases: initial balance sheet expansion; long-term funding; and final contraction. Module II (International Political Economy) will link those findings to today. With a historic dataset, we will test if OBFAs are a necessary condition for governing large-scale transformations and assess their implications for democratic governance. Using historic best practices, the group will further develop a proposal for using OBFAs to finance the Green Transition and will engage with stakeholders to probe its feasibility in today’s monetary architecture. Module III serves to disseminate the findings to a broad audience and maximise impact. To this end, the group will develop an innovative interactive online tool and publish a book on the political economy of financing large-scale transformations.