A Stochastic Spatial Rainfall Model for Engineering Risk Assessment

目前澳大利亚的水文设计做法正在转向使用连续模拟，以更准确地评估与水有关的基础设施在管理洪水和干旱方面的表现。一个主要障碍是无法模拟降雨量的时间和空间变化。该项目旨在开发一个随机降雨模型，模拟整个目标区域具有代表性的六分钟降雨量的长期记录。该建议介绍了一个三级层次模型的时空降雨建设的经验，在以前的ARC研究开发的点降雨模型。还将讨论与数据质量和验证有关的实际问题。

Current Australian hydrologic design practice is moving towards use of continuous simulation to more accurately evaluate the performance of the water-related infrastructure for managing floods and droughts. A major impediment is the inability to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. This project aims to develop a stochastic rainfall model that will simulate long records of representative six-minute duration rainfall throughout the target region. The proposal introduces a three-level hierarchical model of space-time rainfall building on experience of a point rainfall model developed in previous ARC research. Practical issues dealing with data quality and validation will also be addressed.