Building an evidence-base for deforestation-free landscapes: supporting equitable outcomes in and beyond commodity supply-chains

目前，全球粮食系统是气候变化和生物多样性丧失的主要原因，而且无法为所有人提供营养膳食。同样重要的是，棕榈油、大豆、牛肉、可可和其他农产品的生产、贸易和消费正在通过农田和牧场的扩张，导致热带森林和其他自然生态系统的丧失。作为回应，近年来，公司、金融机构和政府纷纷承诺切断粮食供应链与森林砍伐之间的联系。然而，这些承诺未能兑现，热带地区商品驱动的森林砍伐仍然居高不下。为了扭转这一趋势，我们的目标是与公共和私营部门的决策者、从业者和当地利益相关者共同创建一个强大的分析框架，以评估制止商品驱动的森林砍伐政策的有效性和公平性。这一框架将以明确界定的变革理论为基础-与利害关系方合作确定-这些理论阐明了减少毁林政策的因果机制、有利因素和障碍。我们将分析促进无砍伐森林供应链的广泛战略，从旨在减少或转移需求的干预措施（例如，降低消费或改变采购）到针对供应链参与者的举措（例如，认证、尽职调查、司法途径或对农民的技术支持）。我们的目标是制定一个框架，以便在环境、社会和经济等不同可持续发展领域对此类干预措施和举措进行全系统评估。最后，利用最先进的数据和方法，分析框架将用于评估关键商品和国家的现有供应链举措（例如，在印度尼西亚，棕榈油是一种重要的商品，在喀麦隆是可可，在巴西是大豆或牛肉），为促进无森林砍伐的商品景观提供了一套知情的政策选择。

There is an urgent need to transform global food systems, which currently are major contributors to climate change, biodiversity loss, and fail to provide nutritious diets for all. Not the least, the production, trade and consumption of palm oil, soy, beef, cocoa and other agricultural commodities are driving the loss of tropical forests and other natural ecosystems, through the expansion of cropland and pastures. In response, recent years have seen a groundswell of commitments from companies, finance actors and governments to sever the link between food supply-chains and deforestation. Yet, these pledges have failed to deliver and commodity-driven deforestation remains stubbornly high in the tropics. To reverse this trend, we aim to - together with public and private sector decision makers, practitioners, and local stakeholders - co-create a robust analytical framework for assessing the effectiveness and equity of policies to halt commodity-driven deforestation. This framework will rest on clearly defined theories of change - identified in collaboration with stakeholders - which elucidate causal mechanisms, enabling factors and barriers for policies to reduce deforestation. We will analyze a broad range of strategies for promoting deforestation-free supply-chains, from interventions aiming to reduce or shift demand (e.g., lowering consumption or changing sourcing) to initiatives targeting supply-chain actors (e.g., certification, due diligence, jurisdictional approaches, or technical support to farmers). We aim to develop a framework that allows for a system-wide assessment of such interventions and initiatives across different sustainability domains: environmental, social and economic. Finally, drawing upon state-of-the-art data and methods, the analytical framework will be used to evaluate existing supply-chains initiatives for key commodities and countries (e.g., palm oil is Indonesia, cocoa in Cameroon, and soy or beef in Brazil), providing an informed portfolio of policy options for promoting deforestation-free commodity landscapes.