Disease in endangered species: The importance of multiple-host infection and spatial structure.

人们越来越认识到病原体是对濒危物种的威胁。管理这些威胁需要模型来评估备选策略。尽管多宿主病原体构成最大的保护威胁，但目前大多数模型处理的是单一宿主和单一病原体，没有空间结构。本项目开发了新一代空间结构化多主机模型，并将其应用于两个案例研究。第一种是壶菌，这种真菌被认为导致了澳大利亚和海外青蛙的广泛减少和灭绝。第二种是鸟痘和疟疾，它们导致了夏威夷许多特有鸟类的灭绝和濒危。

Pathogens are increasingly recognised as threats to endangered species. Managing such threats requires models to assess alternative strategies. Most current models deal with a single host and single pathogen, without spatial structure, although multiple-host pathogens pose the greatest conservation threats. This project develops a new generation of spatially-structured multiple-host models, and applies them to two case studies. The first is the chytrid fungus that is thought to have lead to widespread declines and extinctions of frogs in Australia and overseas. The second is birdpox and malaria that have led to the extinction and endangerment of much of Hawaii's endemic avifauna.