Initial Design of Marine Transportation System Taking into Consideration of Structure of Interregional Transportation Demand

本研究旨在建立一套适用于海上运输系统规划的统一设计程序，作为船舶设计的上游信息。在为期两年的计划中，本研究主要进行了以下几个方面的研究：1.阐述海洋运输系统结构分析、系统建模和区域间海洋运输需求预测的方法。准备一种分类方法，以利用与问题有关的数据库; 3.为海洋运输系统的最佳化，包括最佳船队，建立一个一致的设计程序。在海洋运输需求预测方法中，认为投入产出分析和系统动力学分析是最合适的方法，并设计了一个新颖的系统动力学建模支持系统。B.在知识库的利用方面，提出了一种基于人工智能的概念聚类方法。C.针对船舶运输系统的优化问题，特别是车辆路径问题，提出了一种规范化的设计方法，并提出了一种求解组合优化问题的神经网络算法。D.为了验证上述结果，提出的模型是由于适用于印度尼西亚。

Due effort in this study is paid to establish a consistent design procedure applied to the planning of marine transportation system which is the upper stream information for ship design.During the two-year plan, the study were carried out on the following items.1. To elaborate appropriate methods for anlysing the structure of marine transportation system, modelling the system, and forecasting interregional marine transportation demand, 2. To prepare a classfication method to utilize the data bases relating to the problem, and 3. To establish an consistent design procedure for the optimization of marine transportation system including optimum fleet of vessels concerned.The results of the study are: a. As for the method for forecasting marine transportation demand, both the input-output analysis and the system dynamic analysis were found to be most appropriate, and an original modelling support system for system dynamics was designed. b. As for the method to utilize the knowledge data bases, a simple hierarchical conceptual clustering method was proposed using artificial Intelligence techniques. c. A normative design procedure for the optimization of marine transportation system, especially for the vehicle routing problem, was proposed, and an algorithmic procedure with neural networks for solving combinatorial optimization problems was developed. d. To verify the above results, the model proposed is due to be applied to Indonesia.