A Study on the Economic Effects of Agricultural Commodities Importation on Japanese Industry Structure.

本研究的主要目的是评价在新的贸易计划下，即关贸总协定农业协定下，农产品进口对日本工业结构的经济影响。为了解决这一问题，本文建立了一个适用于日本的一般均衡模型，该模型将土地作为农业的一个特定因素，并将农业部门细分为比非农业部门更精细的部门。进行了若干次仿真。首先，考虑了大米进口最低准入的影响。在这种情况下，比较了两种最小获取：一种是基于糙米，另一种是基于精米。结果表明：最低准入率为4%时，地租下降2.9 ~ 2.5%；最低准入率为8%时，地租下降5.7 ~ 5.0%；以糙米为基础的比例更高，从福利的角度来看，以糙米为基础的最低获取是可取的。其次，考虑到畜牧业和乳制品行业。研究结果如下：制造业和服务业的产出水平通过初级要素的再配置而提高。所有部门的劳动生产率都在提高，而非农业部门的资本生产率却在下降。畜牧业就业下降约6%。第三，检验总效应。结果如下：这些协议对农业及其相关部门的经济影响并不小。农业生产减少的影响主要是通过农业部门的要素流动影响到农业部门以外的国内生产部门的水平。福利水平提高了，但人均增量没有那么大。由于大米进口渠道的减少，土地的名义租金和实际租金都减少了。

The principal aim of this study is to evaluate econimic effects of agricultural commodities importation on the Japanese Industry Structure under the new trade scheme, i.e.GATT Agreements on Agriculture. In order to tackle this purpose, an applied general equilibrium model of Japan is developed, which includes land as a specific factor in agriculture and that agricultural sectors are subdivided into more fine sectors than the non agricultural sector.Several simulations are conducted. Firstly, effects of the minimum access of rice import is considered. In this case, two kinds of minimum access are compared : one is based on brown rice and the other on milled rice. The result shows that the agricultural land rent declines 2.9 - 2.5% for minimum access of 4%, 5.7 - 5.0% for minimum access of 8%, respectively. The ratio is higher in the case of brown rice basis, and that minimum access based on brown rice is desirable from a view point of welfare aspect. Secondly, livestock and dairy industries are considered. The results are as follows ; The output levels of manufacture are and service sectors increase via the reallocation of primary factors. While the labor productivity in all sectors increases, the capital productivity in non cultivate sectors decrease. The employment on livestock industry decline about 6%. Thirdly, total effects are examined. Results are as follows ; The economic effect of the agreements is not so small on the agricultural and its related sectors. The effect of the decrease in agricultural production is influential to the level of the domestic production sectors other than agricultural sectors primarily via factor movements from agricultural sectors. The welfare is better off, but the increment per capita is not so large. The rent of land decrease both in nominal and real terms due to the minimum access of rice import.