Agent-based Inverse Analysis of Market Potentials for Carnot Batteries considering Uncertain Energy System Pathways (AIM for Carnot)

该项目旨在研究有前景的碳交换配置、碳交换在未来能源系统中的潜在作用，以及成功进入市场的经济激励和障碍。由于技术CB开发仍在进行中，能源经济学可以为有前途的方向提供方向。这激发了一种新的反向方法来研究cb在未来能源市场中的作用。这种反向方法对能源市场建模者来说是一种新方法，并带来了挑战。因此，我们的目标是在一个基于代理的市场模型中描述cb，该模型描述了德国及其邻国，以确定具有经济吸引力的技术配置及其在系统中的使用，得出cb作为一种投资选择的潜在利润风险结构，并从市场角度评估不可避免的技术-经济权衡。主要的挑战包括通过个人经济决策对市场功能的充分描述。由六个工作包组成的工作方案解决了这一挑战，从而部署了基于代理的电力市场模拟。虽然优化方法通常以中央计划者的角度以规范的方式确定理想的投资和调度决策，但基于代理的方法并不依赖于通常假设的完美预见和完美协调。它能够描述市场结构和市场参与者的个体决策。该项目的主要目标有三个方面：一方面，目标是通过将技术经济特征建模为代理的决策变量，将逆向工程特征集成到基于代理的能源系统建模中。这需要在代理人的短期和长期决策方面广泛发展方法。另一方面，CB特征的技术表示需要模型增强。特别是，如果技术经济属性非常相似，或者代理在战略决策中面临内在的不确定性，那么由于许多自由度使趋同复杂化，竞争灵活性选项的差异化、相互作用和潜在的利润蚕食会带来挑战。第三个目标是根据均值回归和路径依赖的能源系统不确定性，制定一个评估有前途的技术配置的利润风险结构的框架。路径依赖的不确定性，如新技术的发展或可再生能源容量的扩大，需要在模拟模型中进行内生处理。我们提出对现有的基于主体的模型进行扩展，以推导出不同市场环境下不同转债配置的调度曲线，以及从单个市场参与者的角度推导出转债的利润风险结构。

This project aims at investigating promising CB configurations, the potential role of CBs in future energy systems, as well as economic incentives and barriers for a successful market entry. As technical CB development is still in progress, energy economics can provide an orientation towards promising directions. This motivates a novel inverse approach to investigate the role of CBs in future energy markets. Such an inverse approach is new to energy market modellers and brings challenges with it. Hence, we aim at depicting CBs in an agent-based market model depicting Germany and its neighbours to identify economically attractive technical configurations and their use in the system, to derive potential profit-risk structures for CBs as an investment option, and to assess inevitable techno-economic trade-offs from a market perspective. The major challenge consists of the adequate depiction of the market functioning through individual economic decisions. A working programme consisting of six working packages addresses this challenge and thereby deploys an agent-based electricity market simulation. Whereas optimization approaches usually identify desirable investment and dispatch decisions in a normative manner taking a central planner perspective, the agent-based approach is not dependent on generally assuming perfect foresight and perfect coordination. It is able to depict the market structure and market participants’ individual decisions. The key objectives of the project are threefold: On the one hand, the goal is to integrate the inverse engineering character into agent-based energy system modelling by modelling techno-economic characteristics as decision variables of the agents. This requires extensive methodological developments, both in the short- and in the long-term decision-making of agents. On the other hand, the technical representation of the CB’s characteristics requires model enhancements. Particularly the differentiation, interplay and potential profit cannibalization of competing flexibility options lead to challenges, as many degrees of freedom complicate convergence, if the techno-economic properties are very similar or agents face immanent uncertainties in their strategic decisions. The third objective is to develop a framework for assessing profit-risk structures of promising technical configurations, based on mean-reverting and path-dependent energy system uncertainties. Path-dependent uncertainties such as the development of new technologies or renewable capacity expansion require endogenous treatment in the simulation model. We propose extension of the existing agent-based model to derive, among others, dispatch curves for different CB configurations under varying market circumstances, as well as profit-risk structures for CBs from an individual market participant’s perspective.