Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks

虽然经验证据表明，企业层面的冲击可以通过网络联系产生巨大的总体效应，但宏观经济政策大多具有总体性质。本项目旨在建立一个新的框架，将整体冲击从对单个单位的冲击中分离出来。主要创新点是：1)从数据中推断网络；2)联合估计聚合因子和网络效应。预期结果是：1)衡量系统性风险；2)研究总体稳定政策与部门稳定政策的最优性的理论框架。好处包括更好地了解澳大利亚的宏观经济波动和拟议的经济政策，以缓解就业和国内生产总值的持续大幅下降。

Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are i) measures of systemic risk and ii) a theoretical framework to study the optimality of aggregate versus sectoral stabilization policies. Benefits include a better understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations in Australia and proposed economic policies to mitigate large and persistent declines in employment and GDP.