発達した温帯低気圧に伴う強風の予測に関する研究

在冬季，热带气旋有时会造成严重的大风灾害。1994年2月22日发生在日本北方的大风灾害就是其中之一。在台风过境期间，共发生了三起交通事故，两起是铁路交通事故，另一起是公共汽车交通事故。本研究集中分析了日本的气象条件和与之相关的大风，并利用地面天气图分析了日本附近的热带气旋的冬季路径。发现北方日本海和沿着日本列岛的太平洋是温带气旋的两条主要路径。同时还发现，台风后区是台风爆发性发展的区域，并对台风伴随大风的评估方法进行了探讨。地面风场首先由地面气压场估计，并考虑到风场的变化。采用质量一致的风模式考虑了地形的影响。一个更复杂的方法，使用动力学中尺度数值模式可以引入湍流的影响。

Extratropical cyclones sometimes cause severe high wind disaster especially in winter season. One of such disasters was the high wind disaster in northern Japan on February 22, 1994. During the passage of the extratropical cyclone, there were three accidents in traffics, two for the railway and the other for bus transportation. The meteorological conditions and the associated high wind were intensively examined in this study.The winter season tracks of extratropical cyclone around Japan were examined using surface weather charts. It is found that the northern Japan Sea and the Pacific Ocean along the Japan Islands were two major paths of extratropical cyclones. It is also found that the later region is the place where the extratropical cyclones sometimes develop explosively.The methodology to evaluate the high wind associated with extratropical cyclone wasinvestigated. The surface wind is first estimated from the surface pressure pattern with consideration. The effect of topography is considered by using a mass-consistent wind model. A more sophisticated methodology which use dynamical meso-scale numerical model can introduce the effect of turbulence.