Study on Evaluation/Projection Model for Medium/Long Term Planning in East Asian Countries

以中国为研究对象，建立了可计算一般均衡发展规划与政策评价与预测模型。将模型应用于中国对增长、环境、贸易自由化和区域发展的分析和预测。从越南的模型出发，我也将类似的模型应用于泰国和印度尼西亚，但并不完全。研究报告从方法论的角度包括三个主要结果。首先，中国的CGE模型现已可用，该模型可以用于2010年至2020年的长期模拟，根据1997年最新的投入产出表构建可区分的10-35个行业。第二，现在有了一个两区域CGE模型，它是上述自然CGE模型的扩展。它可以很容易地扩展到两个以上的区域，对于分析区域问题是有用的。第三，现在可以使用一种新的方法估算国家和区域一级的资本存量和全要素生产率(TFP)。新方法在行业层面的应用是可能的，但受到数据的限制。下一步的研究是基于上面的CGE模型，对中国现在和21世纪面临的三大问题：可持续增长、宏观调控和区域均衡发展进行综合分析。

Focusing on China, I have developed CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) models of development planning and policies for the evaluation and projection. I have applied the models to the analysis and projection of growth, environment, trade liberalization and regional development in China. Starting from model of Vietnam, I have applied similar models also to Thailand and Indonesia, though not fully.The research report includes three major outcomes from the methodological point of view. First, a CGE model of China is now available which can be used for long term simulations up to 2010-2020 with distinguishable 10-35 industries constructed on the basis of the latest 1997 input-output table. Second, a two-region CGE model is now available which is an extension of the natural CGE model above. It can be extended easily to more than two regions and is useful for the analysis of regional problems. Third, a new method of estimation is now available for capital stocks and total factor productivity (TFP) in both national and regional levels. Application of the new method in industry level is possible but with data constraint.The next step of research is a comprehensive analysis based on the CGE modeling above of the three major problems which China faces now and also in the 21st century : sustainable growth, macro-control, and balanced regional development.