Construction and simulation analysis of environmental and economic model for the dynamics of global environmental indicators

在第一年(1996年)和第二年(1997年)，对环境指标和全球环境经济模式进行了调查。最后一年(1998年)，1构建了一个实际的模拟模型。研究结果显示在《生态系统稀缺性的社会认同与经济价值的动态路径：模拟分析》一文(《经济学人》，第183卷，第5期)中，研究了生态系统稀缺性的社会认同与经济价值动态路径的关系。我构建了一个简单的全球模型，其中包含了生态系统的存量和经济系统的约束。为简单起见，我将模型称为EEI(经济系统生态系统指标)模型。因为我们有了Man…更多类型的全球生态系统，很难治理所有这些生态系统。我们使用森林生态系统作为全球生态系统的指数。我们想在另一项工作中推广和消除这一限制。该模型是基于W.D.Nordhause的Dice模型，这是最优经济增长模型。骰子模型由两部分组成。一部分代表全球经济体系，另一部分代表全球变暖问题的前因后果。我将这两个部分分开，只使用全球经济体系的部分。然后将其与全球生态系统的动态模型联系起来。我们的主要分析结果概括如下。(1)我可以展示一种二十世纪后期森林生态系统减少和二十一世纪恢复的最优状态。(2)可以捕捉到生态系统的经济价值路径，其经济价值呈倒U形，即价值在前30年或40年内增加，然后逐渐减少。(3)稀缺性的增加表现为替代弹性的降低，提高了森林生态系统的蓄积量路径和生态系统的边际经济价值路径。较少

In the first year (1996) and the second year (1997), surveys for environmental indicator and for global environmental economic model had been done. Especially the latter subject was intended to obtain a clear perspective for constructing a global environmental and economic model that can show evaluation of global ecosystem, in other words, the global environmental indicators.In the final year (1998), 1 constructed an actual simulation model. The results are shown in the paper "Dynamic Paths of Economic Valuation and the social Recognition of Scarcity for Ecosystems : A Simulation Analysis, " (Kokumin keizai zassi, Vol. 183, No. 5).In the paper, I investigated the relationship between dynamic paths of the economic valuation and the social recognition of scarcity for ecosystems. I composed a simple global model that incorporates the stock of ecosystems and constraints by economic systems. For simplicity I called the model EEI (Economic system Ecosystem Indicator) model. Since we have man … More y types of global ecosystems, it is difficult to treat all of them. We employed forest ecosystems as an index of the global ecosystem. We would like to generalize and remove this constraint in another work.The model was based upon DICE model by W.D.Nordhause, which is the optimal economic growth model. DICE model have two parts. One parts represents the global economic system and the other part do the causes and effects of the global warming problem. I separated these two parts and only use the part of global economic system. Then it was connected with the dynamic model of the global ecosystem.The main results of our analysis is shortly summarized as follows. (1) I could show a kind of optimality of the reduction of forest ecosystems in the late twentieth century and the recovery in twenty first century. (2) I could capture the paths of the economic valuation for the ecosystems, which have the shape of an inverse U, that is, the values increase in first thirty or forty years then decrease gradually. (3) the increase of scarcity that was expressed by the reduction of the rate of elasticity of substitution lifts the paths of stock of the forest ecosystems and the paths of marginal economic values of the ecosystems. Less