Theoretical and empirical analysis on the relation between labor force aging and economic growth

本研究的目的是从理论和实证两方面分析生育率下降、人口增长和劳动力老龄化相互作用的机制。在《劳动力的老龄化》（Oikonomika，1998）一书中，笔者和合著者指出，老年劳动者相对于年轻劳动者的比例上升，劳动力老龄化加剧，阻碍了对人力资本的投资，从而阻碍了经济增长。这个模型提供了一个有趣的见解，关于人口增长和经济增长之间的联系，从标准的增长模型的含义不同。在《劳动力老龄化与未来经济增长的减速》（大经济学，2000）中，笔者和合著者通过模拟发现，在存在增长负效应的柯布-道格拉斯生产技术的标准情况下，由于劳动力老龄化的提前，2055年的人均消费水平将下降21.1%。

The aim of this research is to analyze theoretical and empirical mechanism through which decline in fertility, population growth, and aging in the labor force are interacted with each other. In "Roudousya no koureika no motarasumono" (Oikonomika, 1998), I and co-authors show that an advance of the aging in the labor force, captured by an increase in the ratio of old workers relative to young workers, deters investment in human capital and hence economic growth. This model provide an interesting insight concerning the linkage between population growth and economic growth that differ from the implication from the standard growth model. In "Aging in the Labor Force and Slowdown of Future Economic Growth in Japan" (Oikonomika, 2000), I and co-authors find by simulation that the anticipated advance of the labor force aging reduces the level of per-capita consumption by 21.1% in 2055 in the standard case with the Cobb-Douglas production technology when the adverse growth effect is present.