RESEARCH ON PORITICAL PROGNOSTICATIONS BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF METEORS AND COMETS IN ANCIENT CHINA

这项研究是基于对彗星和流星的观测记录所产生的预测记录。它补充了一系列揭示中国古代天文学与预言政治关系的研究。试图说明中国古代的预言刺激了政治和社会的发展，并重新评价董仲舒“再易论”在中国古代社会理论史上的现实意义。在中国古代，彗星和流星的出现和消失是五大行星不规则运动所引起的持续骚动的主要关注点。古代统治者不得不特别关注这种天文现象，因为当时认为自然与人类社会之间存在着一种相互作用，天堂在天空中表现出对人类世界政治的反应。更重要的是，在古代中国，天文学是作为国家占星术而不是科学领域发展起来的。众所周知，董仲舒所倡导的“载易论”，是对已被合法化为国教的儒家思想的一种对抗，对汉代以来的中国社会产生了重大影响。然而，“载易说”不可能仅凭其文学作品就被社会所充分相信和广泛采用。理解一种理论的文献并不一定导致对该理论的认可。对于统治者来说，一个理论只有能够在神秘的天文现象和现实世界的政治社会事件之间建立合理的联系，并提供令人信服的解释，才能吸引他们。然而，东汉末年，在“陈纬说”兴盛、“载易说”失去原有批判精神的时候，关于彗星、流星出现的新预言继承了“载易说”的批判精神。它为人类社会敲响了警钟，就像出席五大行星的“预言”是如何起作用的一样。少

This research is based on the records of the prognostications generated from the records of the observations on comets and meteors. It supplements a series of researches that have revealed the relations of ancient Chinese astronomy and the politics of the prognostications. It tends to illustrate that ancient Chinese prognostication stimulated the development of the politics and the society, and reevaluate the realistic significance of Dong Zhongshu's "Zai-yi theory" in the history of ancient Chinese social theories.In ancient China, the appearance and disappearance of comets and meteors were the main concerns in the persistent agitation caused by the irregular movements of the Five Planets. Ancient rulers could not help paying special attention on such astronomical phenomenon because at that time, it was believed that there existed an interaction between the nature and human society and the Heaven showed on the sky its reactions to the politic of the human world. This is also coinciden … More t with the fact that astronomy was developed as national astrology rather than as a scientific field in ancient China.It is commonly acknowledged that "Zai-yi theory", advocated by Dong Zhongshu as the antithesis of Confucianism which had been legitimized as the national religion, has imposed great impacts on Chinese society since Han. However, "Zai-yi theory" could not have been fully believed and widely adopted in society only with its literature. Understanding the literature of a theory does not necessarily lead to the recognition of thistheory. For the rulers, a theory could not attract them until it could make plausible connection between and provide convincing explanations of the mysterious astronomical phenomenon and the political and social events in the real world.However, at the end of the East Han, while "Chen-wei theory" was flourishing and "Zai-yi theory" was losing its original critical spirit, new prognostications on the appearance of comets and meteors carried on the critical spirit of "Zai-yi theory". It served as an alarm bell for human society, just as how the "prognostications" attending the Five Planets had functioned. Less