The Water Shortage in Yellow River Basin: the mechanism and the mitigation by Water Market, the Welfare Improvement Impact

本研究旨在对前人关于黄河流域水资源短缺的研究（Kameyama 1998）进行扩充。1)在参考文献和实地调查的基础上，对黄河流域水资源短缺的现状和主要原因进行了详细的研究。对于运河来说，衬砌比低，因冻结而损坏，渗漏和输水过程中失水严重。自流灌区结构陈旧或破损，调节能力差，灌溉保证率低；指出了陈旧和严重损坏的电力设施。2)水资源短缺的对策要求从水资源开发向需水管理发生重大转变，特别是节水开发和扩散至关重要。在节水技术方面，对管道衬砌、拖压转移和喷灌进行了比较探讨。3)从法律和经济两个方面对水价进行了探讨。在水价上涨和各灌区分配变化的情况下，提出了基于正数学规划的影响评价建模方法。(4)随着资源配置的变化，农业结构的变化会影响到投入产出结构，进而对周边国家的经济产生影响。采用CGE（可计算一般均衡）建模方法，建立了福利变化的影响评估框架。

This study aims to expand the previous information about water shortage (Kameyama 1998) in Yellow River Basin in China.1) The situation and main cause of water shortage in Yellow River Basin are investigated by detail study based on various references and the field survey. For the canal, the quit low lining ratio, damaged due to freezing, serious water loss due to leakage and during water transfer. For the structure, outdated or damaged, poor regulation capacity in gravity irrigation areas with low irrigation guarantee rate; outdated ＆ serious damaged electric facilities are pointed out.2) As the countermeasures for the water shortage, the significant change has been required from the water resource development to the water demand management, especially, water saving development and the diffusion are critical. Regarding water saving technology, canal lining and tow pressure transfer, and sprinkler irrigation are comparatively discussed.3) Water pricing is discussed based on legal and economical aspect. Furthermore in the case of increasing water price and the changing the assignment for each irrigation blocks, the evaluation modeling method the impact of these change is presented based on positive mathematical programming.4) With the change of the resource allocation, the agricultural structure change affects the Input-Output structure, furthermore, the influence to the neighborhood countries' economy. The impact assessment framework is presented by CGE(computable general equilibrium) modeling method to simulate the welfare change.