Construction of simulation model for estimating the human activity on the consumption of energy, biomas, and water resources

对地球环境及其各种问题进行了研究，如全球变暖，酸雨，热带雨林的砍伐和荒漠化。这些环境问题是相互关联的。例如，砍伐森林是为了获得耕种土地，以维持充足的粮食供应。因此，大气中的CO2密度通过减少CO2固定面积而增加，这反过来又有助于全球变暖。人类活动的影响，如食物消耗、能源消耗和水需求，在很大程度上促成了许多这些问题。深入了解社会-生物圈-气候之间不同联系的相对重要性。IMAGE 2 ^<[1]>已开发。后藤^<[2]>利用NOAA-AVHRR的植被指数估算了潜在耕地可容纳的人口数量，并对潜在耕地可容纳的人口数量进行了估算。 ...更多信息 土地栽培用于粮食生产。考虑到肉类生产量。并明确地运用Edmond-Rendt模型估算了人口达到最大容量时人类活动的CO2排放量。Yamamoto^[3]>评估了由于土地利用的改善、人口的增加、生活水平的提高、森林的破坏等造成的CO2排放总量，并得出了生物群落的可利用量。在这个模型中，由于两个能源部门的二氧化碳排放量进行了评估：能源消费部门和森林面积减少的部门，由于伐木和刀耕火种的农业清除土地耕种。但人口是不稳定的。以往的研究不能很好地解释人类活动对土地利用变化的影响，本研究旨在建立一个模型，利用地理信息系统和社会经济信息系统，对1986 ~ 2020年全球环境变化的影响程度进行了评价。经济数据，从粮食生产率、CO2排放和水平衡的角度分析了人类活动与全球环境变化的关系。在假设通过土地利用管理可以稳定人口问题、粮食问题和能源消耗引起的全球变暖的前提下，利用系统动力学模型分析了粮食、能源和木材消耗等人类活动对全球环境变化、全球人口容量和水平衡的影响。在这个模型中，世界被划分为各个国家。本研究使用的全球土地利用数据集是由卫星数据得到的土地覆盖图，并采用Cramer和所罗门的方法估计了耕地的潜在分布，该方法考虑了降水和蒸散等气候数据的空间分布。此外，通过全球变暖的人类活动的CO2排放对粮食生产的影响，作为反馈，在模型中包括。至于水的平衡，水是用来耕作，生命线和教师。对BaU情景和IPCC情景的分析结果与现有模型的结果相似。根据研究结果，以联合国估计的2020年人类可居住人口为80亿为基础，分别估算了CO2排放量和水平衡。通过使用全球数据来分配环境变量和酱汁经济指数来提高模型的空间分辨率有待进一步研究。参考文献：[1]J.Alcomo（ed.）：IMAGE 2 2.0全球气候变化的集成建模，Kluer Academic Publishers，1994. [2]S.后藤：同化利用地理信息系统进行全球变化的社会经济模拟，《地球可持续利用的全球规划-全球生态工程的发展》（艾德.S.Murai），Elsevier，第387 -393页，1995年。[3]H.Yamamoto和K.Yamaji：通过全球能源-土地利用变化模型分析生物质利用的可用性，CEPRI报告y 94004，1994年。少

A research concerning the earth's environment and its various problems such as global warming, acid rain, the deforestation tropical rainforest and desertification is performed. These environmental problems are mutually related to each other. For instance, forests are deforested to obtain lands for cultivation to maintain an adequate supply of food. Hence, the CO2 density in the atmosphere increases by decreasing the CO2 fixation area, which in turn contributes to global warming. The influence by human activities such as food consumption, energy consumption, and water demand are greatly contribute to many of these problems. To provide insight into relative importance of different linkages in the Society-biosphere-climate. IMAGE2^<[1]> was developed. But this can't explain the relationship between human activities and global environmental change.Goto ^<[2]> estimated the population that can be accommodated with the potential arable land (using NDVI from NOAA-AVHRR) which can be potentia … More lly cultivated is used for grain production. considering the amount of meat production. And he estimated the CO2 emission from the human activities When the population is maximum of the capacity by using Edmond-Raily Model explicitly. Yamamoto^<[3]> evaluated the overall CO2 exhaust due to the improvement of land use, population increase, living standard improvement, forest destruction and so forth and obtained the amount for which the biomes can be used. In this model, the CO2 exhaust due to two energy sectors were evaluated : energy consumption sector and the sector in which the area of forests is decreased due to logging and due to slash-and-burn agriculture to clear away plots of land for farming. But the population is iuputted. Past Researches mentioned above can not explain the balance between human activities and LUC.This study aims to make a model by which the influence of human activities such as food consumption, energy consumption, etc. on the earth's environment is evaluated and to evaluate the size of the influence from 1986 to 2020 for each countries.Using GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change is analyzed from the viewpoint of food productivity, CO2 emission, and water balance. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environment changes, global population capacity, and water balance are analyzed using system dynamics model. In the model the world is divided into each countries. The global land use data set used in this study is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Cramer and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of CO2 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. As for the water balance, water is used for cultivation, lifeline, and faculty. The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and IPCC scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, based on the human habitability in 2020, which is estimated by UN as 8 billion people, CO2 emission, water balance are estimated respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for further studies.Reference :[1]J.Alcomo (ed.) : IMAGE2 2.0 Integrated Modeling of Global Cli.mate Change, Kluer Academic Publishers, 1994.[2]S.Goto : Assimilating use of GIS for Socio-Economical Simulation for Global Change, Toward Global Planning of Sustainable Use of the Earth-Development of Global Eco-Engineering- (Ed.S.Murai), Elsevier, pp387-393, 1995.[3]H.Yamamoto and K.Yamaji : Analysis of Availability of Biomass Use by Global Energy-LUC model, CEPRI Report y94004, 1994. Less