Democratic Consolidation in Latin America : Comparative Case Analysis and Theoretical Revision

本研究旨在通过分析智利、巴西、墨西哥、秘鲁和萨尔瓦多五个拉美国家的民主化进程，来考察现有的民主巩固理论，并寻求更好的理论。尽管一些拉丁美洲国家仍然观察到政府非法行使权力或缺乏政治秩序，但民主制度在该地区如此广泛和持久地传播是其历史上第一次。民主巩固的理论是多方面的。一方面，有作者强调长期结构性因素的重要性，如经济发展和由此产生的社会多元化、社会阶层之间的权力平衡和“公民社会”的成长。另一方面，也有一些理论强调短期行为因素，如政治战略、民主转型模式和政治制度。然而，这项研究表明，所有这些理论都严重不足以解释拉丁美洲的经历。具有不同社会和政治特征的所有拉丁美洲国家的共同因素是长期的、无休止的社会冲突，这种冲突促使政治学习在精英阶层和普通民众之间和平共处。解释拉丁美洲民主制度持续存在的最重要因素是，关于程序性民主的重要性的广泛全国共识，无论经济和社会事务的政策结果如何。这意味着，如果人民的经济和社会愿望在很长一段时间内得不到满足，就可能催生对民主制度毫无意义的逆向学习。在任何情况下，这种强调通过主体间互动进行政治学习的观点都与建构主义方法密切相关。

This research aims at looking at the existing theories of democratic consolidation and searching for a better theory through analyzing the democratization process of five Latin American countries : Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and E1 Salvador. Although some Latin American countries still observe illegal exercise of power by the govemments or the lack of political order, it is the first time in its history that democratic regimes spread so broadly and persistently in the region. Theories of democratic consolidation are multiple. On the one hand, there are authors who emphasize the importance of long-term structural factors such as economic development and the resultant social pluralism, power balance among social classes and the growth of "civil society." On the other hand, there are theories that emphasize short-term behavioral factors such as political strategies, modes of democratic transition and political institutions. This research, however, revealed that all of these theories are highly insufficient in explaining Latin American experiences. The common factor shared by all Latin American countries with different social and political characteristics is the long exhaustive social conflict that precipitated political learning for peaceful co-existence among the elite and the general public. The most important factor that explains the persistence of democratic regimes in Latin America is the broad national consensus with regard to the importance of the procedural democracy regardless of the policy result on the economic and social matters. This means that a reverse learning on the meaninglessness of democratic regimes may be precipitated if people's economic and social aspirations are not met for an extended period of time. In any case, this view that emphasizes political learning through inter-subjective interactions is affinitive to the constructivist approach.