Relationship between Changes in the Economic Environment and Financial Ratios: Empirical Study of Bankrupt Firms

本研究通过对破产企业的财务比率进行时间序列观测，阐明了各财务比率与经济环境变化的关系。因此，已经证明，一些财务比率受到经济环境变化的影响，也有一些财务比率的数字根据时间段而大幅波动，尽管它们是否直接受到经济环境变化的影响还有待充分证实。这项研究还发现，存在不受经济环境变化影响的财务比率。经济环境，以及濒临破产的公司特有的明显趋势。有人批评说，试图提取在单变量环境中对破产检测有统计意义的比率与Beaver[1967]的研究工作没有任何不同。但是，研究者们的注意力主要集中在模型的构建上，如Altman模型[1968]那样，使用了根据经济环境的某些变化而可能呈现与理论相悖的逆向分布的财务比率，因此，对各比率所包含的特征的分析一直被忽视。这项研究表明，统计上的显著性不同于会计上的显著性。

In this research, the relation between each financial ratio and changes in the economic environment has been elucidated through time-series observations of financial ratios in bankrupt companies. As a result, it has been demonstrated that some financial ratios are affected by changes in the economic environment and also that there are financial ratios in which figures fluctuate considerably depending on the time period, although it is yet to be adequately confirmed if they are directly affected by any change in the economic environment.This research also uncovered the existence of financial ratios that are not affected by changes in the economic environment and also that distinctively present tendencies specific to companies near bankruptcy. Some criticize that an attempt to extract ratios that are statistically significant for bankruptcy detection in a univariate setting is not any different from Beaver[1967]'s research work. As, however, researchers have concentrated much on constructing a model and have used financial ratios that may show reverse distribution patterns, which contradict relevant theories, depending on some changes in the economic environment, as was the case in the Altman model [1968], analysis with regards to characteristics contained by each ratio has been unduly neglected up to now. This research revealed being statistically significant is different from being significant in the light of accounting.