A Study on the Integrated Simulation System of Land Use, Transportation, and Environment Policies in Asian Metropolises

在JSPS-Manila项目的支持下，我们的研究试图捕捉经济增长、城市化和机动化之间的多重因果关系，并开发一个环境模拟和政策影响分析的综合系统。基于gis的分析表明，城郊地区的蔓延包络是由空间集聚效应较低和高度依赖汽车导致的道路交通服务敏感性较高引起的。相反，研究表明，快速机动化是由无序扩张的建成区扩张和中等收入阶层的增长显著推动的。因此，大多数郊区的汽车保有量较大，交通拥堵，基础设施服务质量较差。本研究还说明了环境模拟的一些后果。在BAU情景下，在微观水平上对土地利用变化、绿化退化和大气环境进行了预测。建议为减轻这种情况，应紧急推行和执行战略设想，包括朝向紧凑城市的土地使用运输政策和绿化政策。显然，有许多可供选择的方案需要在短期和长期考虑。本文开发的模拟系统适用于有效地检查一组可行的策略选项。

Our study under the auspices of JSPS-Manila project has tried to capture multi-fold causalities among economic growth, urbanization and motorization, and to develop an integrated system of environmental simulation and policy impact analysis. GIS-based analysis shows that sprawl envelopment in the suburban areas is caused by lower effect of spatial agglomeration and higher sensitivity to road-transport service resulting from high car dependence. It is conversely shown that rapid motorization is significantly pushed by expansion of sprawl built-up area as well as growth of the middle-income class. Consequently, most of suburbs show larger car ownership, traffic congestion and poor quality of infrastructure service.This study also illustrated some consequences of environmental simulation. Land-use change, degradation of greenery and atmospheric environment were predicted in the microscopic level under the BAU scenario. It is recommended that for the alleviation of these situation, strategic scenarios including land-use transportation policies towards a compact city and greening policies should be pursued and implemented urgently. There are clearly many available options that are necessary to consider both in short term and in long term. The simulation system developed here is applicable to effectively examine a feasible set of policy options.