MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF HUMAN SUXUAL BEHAVIOR AND SPREAD OF SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM

第一年，建立了计算机模拟环境，并对性传播疾病进行了统计分析。还进行了STD传播的初步模拟。根据统计分析结果，影响因素没有明确识别，表明背景情况复杂。第二年，分析了详细的（性别和年龄特异性发病率）STD传播数据，并提取了特定的模式。这些模式很好地解释了性别和年龄特定的性病数学模型假设在问卷调查中观察到的年龄特定的接触率。两年的分析表明，性行为和性传播疾病的问题是非常复杂的。我们必须继续研究以进一步了解。

In the first year, the environment for computer simulation was established and statistical analysis of sexually transmitted disease (STDs) was carried out. Tentative simulation of STD spread were also performed. According to the results of the statistical analysis, influential factors were not clearly identified, suggesting complex situation in the background. By the tentative simulations, importance of groups of different sexual activity was suggested.In the second year, detailed (sex and age specific incidences) STD spread data was analyzed and specific patterns were extracted. These patters were well explained by sex and age specific mathematical model of STD assuming the age-specific contact rates observed in the questionnaire survey. Individual Based Model was also used in the simulation.Two years of analysis revealed that the problem of sexual behavior and sexually transmitted diseases is very complex. We have to continue research for further understanding.