Management System Development for Agricultural Resource and Environment in Asia

根据计量经济模型预测，我国稻米和小麦的供求形势将趋于缓和，主要原因是收入增长导致的人均消费下降。但由于国内畜牧业的扩张，预计玉米和大豆的进口将增加。在土地和水资源约束压力不断增大的情况下，根据自然资源条件，结合市场和政策形势，预测农业土地利用将发生变化。为了实现可持续的粮食生产，资源管理政策在中国变得越来越重要。在印度尼西亚，由于人口增长和产量停滞，预计大米进口将增加。技术进步和外岛农业土地开发对国家粮食安全至关重要。预计缅甸的大米供求将紧张，主要原因是产量停滞。由于水稻价格偏低，化肥价格相对较高，政府灌溉投资的效果有限，农民种稻的积极性下降。要实现水稻生产的可持续发展，必须完善农业产出和投入市场体系，系统安排各项农业政策，建立符合区域特点的农业资源环境管理体系。资源管理发展的影响通常被认为是巨大的，特别是在原始传统农业经营的地区。

According to the prediction by an econometric model, the supply and demand situation of rice and wheat in China is predicted to relax mainly due to the decease in per capita consumption associated with income growth. But the imports of corn and soybean are predicted to increase due to the expansion of domestic livestock sector. Under rising pressure of land and water resource constraint, the agricultural land use is predicted to change according to the natural resource condition associated with the market and policy situation. To realize the sustainable food production the resource management policy is becoming to be important in China.In Indonesia the import of rice is predicted to increase due to population growth and yield stagnation. The technological progress and the agricultural land development in external islands are important for the nation's food security. In Myanmar rice supply and demand is predicted to be tight mainly due to yield stagnation. The effect of irrigation investment by government is limited and farmer's incentive for growing rice is decreasing associated with low rice price and relatively high fertilizer price. For realizing the sustainable rice production it is important to improve agricultural output and input market system and to arrange various farm policies systematically.The management system of agricultural resource and environment should be developed based on regional characteristic conditions. Effects of the resource management development are usually observed to be substantial especially in the areas where crude traditional farming have been operated.