Econometric evaluation of CAP impacts in Germany

目前，欧盟每年花费约50亿欧元直接支付给德国农民。此外，农业政策制定者越来越多地依赖于“农村发展”的差异化措施，这些措施除了支持农业企业外，还应有助于实现环境目标，并在总体上加强农村地区。这个次级项目的目的是开发和应用回归模型，分析德国各地区农业和农村发展政策对农业部门的影响。根据领土观察单位的分析，可以包括不直接针对农场的手段，例如在德国东部特别重要的村庄重建措施。子项目借鉴了最近的文献，处理面板数据设置中的多个和连续的政策影响。在本子项目第一阶段正在进行的工作的基础上，主要重点将放在现有模型的三个扩展上：(1)加强与CAP对农民行为影响相关的微观经济基础，(2)明确考虑计量经济模型中农场结构的动态，(3)放松线性假设，这通常是这些模型的核心。

Currently, the EU spends around 5 billion euro annually on decoupled direct payments to German farmers. In addition, agricultural policymakers have been increasingly relying on differentiated measures for ‘rural development’ which, besides supporting agricultural enterprises, should also assist environmental aims and strengthen rural areas in general. The aim of this subproject is to develop and apply regression models that analyze the effects of agricultural and rural development policies on the agricultural sector in German regions. Basing the analysis on territorial observation units allows the inclusion of instruments which are not directly aimed at farms, e.g. measures for village regeneration which are of particular importance in eastern Germany. The subproject draws on recent literature dealing with multiple and continuous policy effects in a panel data setting. Building on ongoing work from the first phase of this subproject, the primary focus will be on three extensions to existing models: (1) strengthening the microeconomic underpinnings related to CAP effects on farmers’ behavior, (2) explicitly considering dynamics of farm structures in the econometric models, (3) relaxing the linearity assumptions which are typically central to these models.