Analysis of the labor participation and wage equation model of Japanese married women

女性劳动参与率的计量经济学模型和工资方程得到了广泛的应用。必须考虑到这些模型估计中的样本选择偏差，因为妇女的工资只有在她们工作时才能观察到。传统的估计方法没有得到充分的审查，因此可能导致误导性的政策影响。本文通过传统的方法估计日本已婚妇女的劳动参与度和工资方程，并首次通过一种新的、有效的、同时的最大似然估计方法，该估计器使用了日本家庭经济研究所进行的“日本消费者小组调查”的数据。我们还调查了日本信贷紧缩对家庭福利的影响。利用1993年至1999年的家庭面板数据，通过加入内生信贷约束，扩展了消费欧拉方程的理论框架，并利用Ameiya(1985)的S 5型托比特模型估计了增广的欧拉方程。一些经验性的发现浮出水面。首先，我们发现，有相当一部分人面临信贷约束。因此，我们的结果否定了标准消费欧拉方程，即生命周期永久收入假说的必要条件。其次，通过利用1993年信贷约束指标存在时的数据，我们证实了信贷约束的内生性是可行的，证实了信贷约束的内生性在估计消费欧拉方程时产生了严重的偏差。极大似然估计结果支持内生信用约束下的欧拉方程框架。最后，对1993-1999年的全部数据进行分析后发现，信贷紧缩变得更加严重，特别是在1997年之后。

Econometric models of female labor participation and wage equations have been used extensively. Sample selection biases in the estimations of such models must be taken into account since women's wages cannot be observed unless they are working. Conventional estimation methods have not been sufficiently examined and may, therefore, result in misleading policy implications. This paper estimates labor participation and wage equations of Japanese married women through conventional methods, and for the first time, through a new, efficient, simultaneous maximum likelihood estimator that uses data from the "Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers" conducted by the Institute of Household Economy.We also investigate hoe the credit crunch in Japan affected household welfare. The theoretical framework of a consumption euler equation is augmented by adding endogenous credit constraints With household panel data for 1993-1999, we estimate the augmented Euler equation by using Amemiya (1985)'s Type 5 Tobit model. Several empirical findings emerge. First, we found that a non-negligible portion of people face credit constraints. Accordingly, our results reject the standard consumption Euler equation, i.e., the necessary condition of the life-cycle permanent income hypothesis. Second, by using data in 1993 when an indicator of credit constraint is available, we confirm that endogeneity of credit constraint is available, we confirm that endogeneity of credit constraints generates a serious bias in estimating consumption Euler equation. Maximum likelihood estimation results support our framework of Euler equation with endogenous credit constraints. Finally, analyses of the full data for 1993-1999 uncover that the credit crunch became serious especially after 1997.