Econometric Models and Methods for Project Evaluation

在本研究项目中，我们分析了日本家庭微观数据的计量经济模型。首先，我们分析了日本已婚女性是否参加劳动力市场的决定。早在Gronau（1973）和Heckman（1976，1979）等人的研究中，女性劳动参与率和工资方程的计量经济学模型得到了广泛的应用，并进行了大量的实证研究。众所周知，妇女的工资只有在工作时才能得到遵守。因此，在模型估计中必须考虑样本选择偏差问题。然而，传统的估计方法，如赫克曼的两步法，没有得到充分的审查，因此可能会导致误导的政策含义。本研究使用家庭经济研究所的“日本消费者调查”，通过传统方法和新提出的最大似然法，对日本已婚女性的劳动参与率和工资公式进行了估算。其次，使用“日本消费者调查”的家庭调查数据，考察了家庭如何应对流动性限制。本文采用Dynan（1993）的计量经济学框架，对两类家庭（一种是面临流动性约束的家庭，另一种是不面临流动性约束的家庭）的消费进行了欧拉方程的估计。分析中使用了5型Tobit模型。研究发现，存在流动性约束的家庭比不存在流动性约束的家庭具有更强的预防性储蓄动机。这些方法和模型可以用于家庭分析以外的问题。我们还使用本项目开发的方法和模型在相关领域进行了一些应用研究工作。

In this research project, we analyzed Japanese household micro-data by econometric models. First, we analyzed the decision of the Japanese married female whether she would attend the labor market or not. Econometric models consisting of female labor participation and wage equations were widely used and many empirical researches were done as early as Gronau (1973) and Heckman (1976,1979). As widely known, wages of women are not observed unless they are working. Therefore, the problems of sample selection biases must be considered in estimations of the model. However, conventional estimation methods, such as Heckman's two step method, have not been sufficiently examined and therefore may result in misleading policy implications. In this project, the Japanese married female labor participation and wage equations were estimated by the conventional methods and by a newly proposed simultaneous maximum likelihood method using the "Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers" by the Institute of Household Economy.Secondly, using the panel of household data obtained from "Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers", we examined how households coped with liquidity constraints. We adopt the econometric framework from Dynan (1993) and estimated Euler's equations of household consumption for two types of households ; that is one was facing the liquidity constraints and other was not facing the liquidity constraints. The Type 5 Tobit model was used in the analysis. We found that the households with the liquidity constraints had stronger precautionary motives for saving than those without the liquidity constraints.For analyzing the micro-data of households, we developed several new econometric methods and models were developed in this project. These methods and models could be used problems other than the analysis of households. We also did several applied research works in the deeply related areas using the methods and models developed in this project.