A study of economic effect of non-smoking using a system model

本研究的目的是通过系统模型找出不吸烟作为预防各种疾病的积极措施对个人和社会的经济影响，并获得最具成本效益的戒烟措施的基础数据。对各种进展和戒烟进行了典型化，并建立了系统模型，计算吸烟导致癌症发病率和死亡率增加的相对利润损失。20 ~ 50岁男性肺癌发病中，吸烟造成的人均利润增量损失约为100万日元。肺癌患者的医疗费用为男性2449亿日元，女性1132亿日元，总计3582亿日元。其中，烟草使用分别占53.4%、49.2%、52.1%。男性胃癌（3760亿日元）的医疗费用为15%，男性结肠癌和直肠癌（1770亿日元和99亿日元）为8%，乳腺癌（71亿日元）为3%，子宫癌（38亿日元）为6%。因吸烟而患七种主要癌症的人均损失为1550万日元（男性1930万日元，女性1020万日元）。从发病风险变化的敏感性分析来看，该系统模型的可靠性较高。

The purposes of this research are to find out the economic effect of non-smoking as positive preventive measures of various illnesses which can be achieved into an individual and society using a system model, and to obtain the underlying such data as the most cost-effective measure against smoking. Various progress and cessation of smoking were typified and the system model was developed, which calculates relative lost profits from the increase in the morbidity and mortality of cancer by smoking. An incremental lost profit per person by smoking in male lung cancer affection is about 1 million yen at 20-50 years old. Medical expenditure by lung cancer affection is 244,900 million yen in man, 113,200 million yen in woman, and 358,200 million yen in total. Of these, tobacco use accounts for 53.4%, 49.2%, 52.1% respectively. Medical cost of cancer caused by tobacco use is 15% in male gastric cancer (37,600 million yen), 8% in male colon and rectal cancer (17,000 million and 9,900 million yen), 3% in breast cancer (7,100 million yen) and 6% in uterine cancer (3,800 million yen). The average loss of having main seven cancers by tobacco use is 15.5 million yen per affected person (19.3 million yen in man, 10.2 million yen in woman). It is thought that reliability of this systems model is relatively high from sensitivity analysis by change of morbidity risk.