Regional Economic Integration and its Impacts on Growth, Income Distribution and Poverty Reduction in East Asia: An Ecnometric Analysis based on CGE Modeling

我们开始了为期三年的项目的第一年（2004年），实施了以越南为重点的CGE世界模型的试点研究，并在年底基本完成了越南的案例研究。我们还尝试收集越南、中国和泰国的微观家庭数据，建立世界模型的数据库，并进行理论和实证研究，以补充模型分析。第二年（2005年），我们继续进行类似的调查和研究，增加了印度尼西亚，并几乎完成了中国和泰国的案例研究。2006年上半年，我们基本完成了印度尼西亚的案例研究，并最终确定了整个项目的内容。在为期三年的项目结束时，我们于2007年1月28日至29日在名古屋大学研究生院国际开发研究科举办了一次国际研讨会，以整合和总结过去三年来为该项目所做的所有研究工作。研讨会的结果是， ...更多信息 项目报告主要包括：关于东亚地区一体化和增长、贫困和收入分配的越南、中国、泰国和印度尼西亚的4个案例研究，1份关于整个地区的总结论文，以及6份其他相关论文，共计11篇。最后的项目报告除了上述11篇在研讨会上发表的论文外，还包括3篇过去发表的论文。参加研讨会的有中国5人、越南2人、泰国1人、印度尼西亚2人、日本5人。根据世界CGE模型进行的影响分析表明，东亚FTA（自由贸易协定）或东亚经济共同体一般对增长有积极影响，改善收入分配，并导致减贫，虽然对中国的影响有点特殊。研究结果表明，东亚经济共同体具有积极的潜力或长期的积极影响，但其结构调整的要求是短期内需要克服的实际问题。这是一般的含义，但FTA对增长、分配和贫困的影响因FTA的国家和类型而异，在信号和程度上也各不相同，因此需要针对具体情况进行具体的分析和评价。本项目的下一个研究课题是对FTA在东亚地区的影响进行动态的CGE分析，并对各国和整个地区的未来进行展望。少

We started the first year (2004) of three-year project by implementing a pilot study of CGE world model with focus on Vietnam and almost completed the case study of Vietnam at the end of the year. We attempted also to collect micro household data for Vietnam, China and Thailand, to build data base for world model, and to implement theoretical and empirical studies to supplement the modeling analysis. In the second year (2005), we continued similar research and studies, adding Indonesia and almost completed the case studies of China and Thailand. In the first half of the final year (2006), we almost completed the case study of Indonesia and finalized the whole content of the project.At the end of the three-year project, we had an international workshop on January 28-29, 2007 at the Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, in order to integrate and summarize all of the research works done for the project during the past 3 years. The workshop resulted in the final … More project report consisting mainly of the papers presented: 4 case studies of Vietnam, China, Thailand and Indonesia on regional integration and growth, poverty and income distribution in East Asia, 1 summary paper for the whole region, and 6 other related papers, totaling 11 in number. The final project report includes 3 published paper in the past in addition to the above 11 papers presented at the workshop. We had 5 participants to the workshop from China, 2 from Vietnam, 1 from Thailand, and 2 from Indonesia in addition to 5 from the Japanese side.The impact analysis based on the world CGE model indicates that the East Asian FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) or the East Asian Economic Community generally have positive effects on growth, improve income distribution, and result in poverty reduction, though the impacts on China are a little bit exceptional. The results indicate positive potential or long-run positive effects of the East Asian Economic Community, but its requirement of structural adjustment is the actual problem to be overcome in the short-run. This is the general implication, but the impacts of FTA on growth, distribution and poverty differ in sign and magnitude, depending on countries and the types of FTA, so that concrete and specific analysis and evaluation are needed for individual cases. The next research to be continued from this project is to do dynamic CGE analysis on the impacts of FTAs in East Asia, giving future prospects of the countries and the region as a whole. Less