Modelling spatial variability of periglacial processes based on a global monitoring network

在冰缘环境中，全球气候变暖引发了多年冻土和季节性霜冻的退化，这反过来又可能破坏山坡的稳定并改变地表条件。为建立全球性的冰周过程监测网络，我们以建立模型实验点、规范监测技术和扩大监测网络为目标。这个为期三年的项目取得了以下成果。在高北极斯瓦尔巴群岛的模型实验点进行监测，促进了基岩冻楔、土坡永久冻土蠕变、土坡冻胀和溶胀以及低地热收缩开裂等技术的改进和标准化，并揭示了这些过程的时间和强度。多种地球物理探测技术使我们能够可视化地下内部结构和地下冰/水的三维分布。结合监测和探测结果，建立了冰缘过程时空变化模型。监测网络扩展到世界上各种冰缘环境，从极地地区（南极洲和阿拉斯加）到中纬度高山（瑞士和日本阿尔卑斯山、西藏和蒙古）。获得的冻土和冰缘过程数据使临时模型成为全球适用的模型。低温扰动和风化过程，不能直接监测，实验室尺度模型使我们能够估计环境条件的过程。基于上述结果，我们预测了与多年冻土和季节性霜冻退化有关的未来环境变化。

In periglacial environments, global climatic warming triggers degradation of permafrost and seasonal frost, which in turn, may destabilize mountain slopes and change earth surface conditions. Toward establishing a global network for monitoring periglacial processes, we aimed at constructing model experimental sites, standardizing monitoring techniques and expanding the monitoring network. The three-year project provided the following results.1. Monitoring at model experimental sites in High-Arctic Svalbard promoted improvement and standardization of techniques for frost wedging in bedrock, permafrost creep in talus slopes, frost heave and solifluction on soil slopes and thermal contraction cracking in lowlands, as well as revealed the timing and magnitude of these processes. A variety of geophysical sounding techniques permitted us to visualize the subsurface internal structure and 3-D distribution of ice/water in the ground. Coupling the results from monitoring and sounding, we developed models of the temporal and spatial variations in the periglacial processes.2. The monitoring network was expanded to a variety of periglacial environments in the world, ranging from polar regions (Antarctica and Alaska) to mid-latitude high mountains (Swiss and Japanese Alps, Tibet and Mongolia). The obtained data on frozen ground and periglacial processes enhanced the provisional models to be globally applicable models.3. Cryoturbation and weathering processes, which cannot be monitored directly, laboratory scale models enabled us to estimate the environmental conditions for the processes.4. Base of the above results we predicted future environmental changes associated with permafrost and seasonal frost degradation.