Modeling of Confrontation and Conflict by Synthesizing Mathematical and Simulation Approach

本研究项目的任务有两个方面：第一是研究对抗和冲突的数学和模拟方法的综合有效性，非常综合的决策情况。我们正试图以正式的方式将这种情况概念化。第二是提出一个统一的框架，在这个框架中我们可以讨论对抗和冲突的过程和结构。在这样的使命下，我们将数学/分析模型与仿真模型相结合，开发了创新的模型。实际上，我们可以在最近的研究成果——超博弈模型、戏剧模型和景观模型的基础上，提出一个创新的模型，并对结果进行展示。同时，我们在印度尼西亚Citarum河流域进行了实证研究对抗，有一些当地的研究人员参与。我们发现各个利益相关者之间存在严重的冲突，如地方政府、中央政府、下游产业、上游居民/农民等。为了解决这个问题，我们发展了DtDA（戏剧理论困境分析），并运用它提出了一些解决冲突的现实建议。

The mission of this research project id two-fold : The first is to investigate validity of synthesis of mathematical and simulation approaches to confrontation and conflict, extremely incorporate decision situation. We are trying to conceptualize such situation in a formal way. The second is to propose a unified framework in which we could discuss process and structure of confrontation and conflict.Under such mission we developed innovative models by combining mathematical/analytical models with simulation models. Indeed, based on recent investigation hypergame model, dramatic model and landscape model, we could propose an innovative model and gave presentations on the results.At the same time we conducted an empirical research confrontation in Citarum River basin in Indonesia, involving some local researchers. We identify sever confrontation among various stakeholders like local governments, central governments, lower stream industries, upper stream habitants/farmers and so on. To deal with the problem, we developed DtDA (Drama-theoretic Dilemma Analysis) and, applying it, we proposed some realistic recommendations for resolving the conflicts.