A Study in the Generating-Expanding Process and the Causes of Financial Institution's Poor Support to their Bad Loans in 1990s' Japan

这项研究以20世纪90年代后半期，特别是1997年底开始的大约两年为重点，调查了日本金融市场在(据称)麻烦和混乱中的运行机制和实际数字。这一时期通常被称为“信贷紧缩”或“金融危机”时期，被认为是日本在20世纪80年代“泡沫年代”期间金融机构对产生和扩大的不良贷款支持不力而造成的整个经济问题的高潮。现在，主流观点认为，这段时期是日本成功进行政策干预的一个案例，正是在这段时期，日本开始了从长达十年的银行不良贷款严重问题中恢复过来的过程。根据这一观点，最近，他们向陷入次贷困境的发达国家的央行和政府提出了政策建议。然而，没有人以令人信服的证据表明“紧缩”或“危机”的严重性，并从经验上证实这一时期政策干预的有效性。对宏观数据的随意观察使人们对“信贷紧缩”的严重性以及政策的有效性产生了怀疑。本研究利用大量关于单个企业融资行为的微观数据，从“按行业划分的企业财务报表统计”(Hojin Kigyo Tokei Chosa，Kiho)中，实证地证实了不存在这种应该被称为“信贷紧缩”或“金融危机”的严重情况。没有任何严重的疾病，任何政策干预都不可能奏效。这一结论表明，日本在“金融危机”期间的政策成功故事是一个神话，这将为对有争议的日本不良贷款进行新的研究创造动力。研究的最终报告可从财务省的主页下载：http://www.mof.go.jp/jouhou/soken/toukei.htm

Focusing on the second half of 1990s, about two years in particular beginning in the end of 1997, this study investigates the working mechanism and actual figures of Japan's financial markets in (alleged) troubles and confusion. This period, often called as the time of "Credit Crunch" or "Financial Crisis", is regarded as the climax of Japan's economy wide troubles caused by financial institution's poor support to bad loans generated and expanded during "the Bubble Years" in the 1980s. Now the dominant view remembers this period as a case for successful policy intervention with which Japan began the recovering process from a decade-length serious trouble with bank's bad loans. Upon this view, recently, they make policy recommendations to central banks and governments in developed countries fallen in sub-prime loan troubles. Nobody, however, has shown with persuasive evidence the seriousness of the "Crunch" or "Crisis" and confirmed empirically the effectiveness of the policy intervention during this period. Casual observation of macro data causes doubts on the seriousness of the "Credit Crunch" and therefore the policy effectiveness.Using huge set of micro-data on financing behavior of individual firms, from Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly (Hojin Kigyo Tokei Chosa, Kiho), this study empirically confirms that there was no such serious situation that should be called "Credit Crunch" or "Financial Crisis". Without any serious disease, no policy intervention could be effective. This conclusion suggests that the success story of Japans policy during the "Financial Crisis" period is a myth, which would create a momentum for new researches on the Japans bad loans controversy.The Final Report of the study is downloadable from the Ministry of Finance's homepage : http://www.mof.go.jp/jouhou/soken/toukei.htm