Essays in Applied Microeconomics: crime, wage inequality and the financial crisis

我提出的研究议程包括两个方面。在项目1和2中，我调查了英国刑事犯罪的潜在原因和补救措施，自2014年以来，英国的刑事犯罪上升了50%以上，预计还会进一步上升（ONS, 2022）。在第二部分（项目3）中，我扩展了硕士期间开始的研究，以解释广泛记录的工资不平等长期积极趋势背后的机制（Schaefer和Singleton， 2020）。在我的博士学位期间，我采用了先进的定量方法——包括差分法的最新进展。创新的大数据与因果推理和空间计量经济学的发展相结合，为研究这些现象提供了新的机会。我的目标是为犯罪和工资不平等的决定因素提供新的证据，尤其是在金融危机之后。项目一调查慈善活动和项目的地方资金分配对犯罪率的影响。地方政府削减公共财政资金，导致青年中心关闭，提供类似服务的慈善机构的私人资金也面临财政压力。倡导采取社区干预措施预防青少年犯罪的人认为，关闭青年中心减少了对年轻人的教育支持、指导和心理健康支持，导致青少年犯罪率上升。我预计，旨在改善青年人力资本和劳动力流动性的更慷慨、更长期的项目，会对犯罪产生更持久的影响。我使用国家彩票资助的地方项目的细粒度信息和当地警方的犯罪数据来调查为年轻人提供的服务是否会对当地的犯罪发生率产生因果关系。该项目将说明改善这种地方服务的优势——要么通过直接的地方政府资助，要么通过采取措施刺激慈善捐赠给了解不同社区需求的地方慈善机构——以解决犯罪问题，创造一条产生影响的途径。在项目2中，我使用类似的数据来估计金融危机对失业和犯罪之间关系的影响。经济衰退或高失业率时期等宏观经济冲击使得非法活动的预期收益相对较大，犯罪活动不断增加。一些地区不利的当地经济机会可能部分解释了犯罪率的地理差异。因此，我调查了犯罪率的变化在多大程度上是由当地因素造成的，特别是失业，以及犯罪率的上升是否可以部分解释为大衰退期间失业与犯罪之间联系的根本变化。该项目与政府的“提升水平”议程相联系，并揭示了是否需要针对当地社区采取更具体的干预措施。第三个项目涉及工资不平等。工资不平等增长的一个主要驱动因素是同一行业企业之间平均工资差异的扩大（Faggio et al., 2010）。特别是自金融危机以来，企业之间的劳动生产率差异也在扩大。这两种现象可能都有某种机制可以解释。市场竞争导致资源从效率较低的企业重新分配到效率较高的企业（Coad, 2007）。生产率更高的企业得以生存和发展，而生产率分布底部的企业更有可能萎缩或停滞。如果这一选择过程受到损害，可能是由于金融危机后缺乏资本流动性，那么企业之间的差异可能会持续很长一段时间，并且鉴于劳动力市场的不完善，这可能意味着企业之间工人的流动性受到损害，从而导致工资差距不断扩大（Criscuolo等人，2020）。我从全面的公司层面数据中选取了大量公司样本，对这一解释进行了检验。

My proposed research agenda combines two strands. In projects 1 & 2, I investigate potential reasons and remedies for criminal offences in the UK which have risen by over 50% since 2014 and are predicted to rise further (ONS, 2022). In the second strand (project 3), I expand research started during my Master, to explain the mechanisms behind the widely documented, long-term positive trend in wage inequality (Schaefer and Singleton, 2020).Throughout my PhD, I employ advanced quantitative methods - including recent advances in difference-in-difference methods. Innovative, large data coupled with developments in causal inference and spatial econometrics provides new opportunities to study these phenomena. I aim to provide new evidence on the determinants of crime and wage inequality, particularly in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Project 1 investigates the impact of local funding allocations for charitable events and projects on crime rates. Local government funding cuts to public finances have resulted in closures of youth centres and private funding for charities providing similar services is under financial pressure. Advocates of community interventions to prevent youth crime argue that the closure of youth centres has reduced educational support, mentoring and mental health support for young people, resulting in higher rates of youth crimes. I expect that more generous and longer-term projects aimed at improving the human capital and labour mobility of youths have a more persistent effect on crime.I use granular level information on local projects funded by the National lottery and local area police crime data to investigate whether service provision for young people causally affects the local incidence of crime. The project will illustrate the advantage of improving such local services - either via directed local government funding or via measures to stimulate charitable giving to local charities that are aware of the needs of different communities - to tackle crime, creating a pathway to impact. In project 2, I use similar data to estimate the impact of the financial crisis on the relationship between unemployment and crime. Macroeconomic shocks such as recessions or periods of high unemployment make the expected benefits of illegal activities relative larger increasing criminal activity. Unfavourable local economic opportunities in some areas may partially explain the geographic variation in crime rates. I therefore investigate how much of the variation in crime is due to local area factors, particularly unemployment, and whether the rising crime rate can be in part explained by a fundamental change in the link between unemployment and crime during the Great Recession. This project links into the governments' "Levelling Up" agenda and sheds light on whether there is a need for more specific interventions tailored to local communities. The third project concerns wage inequality. A major driver of the growth in wage inequality are rising differences in average wages between firms in the same industry (Faggio et al., 2010). Especially since the financial crisis, labour productivity differences between firms have also grown. There may be mechanisms that explain both phenomena. Market competition leads to resources being reallocated from less to more efficient firms (Coad, 2007). More productive enterprises survive and grow, while those at the bottom of the productivity distribution are more likely to shrink or stagnate. If this selection process has been impaired, perhaps due to a lack of capital mobility following the financial crisis, then difference between firms may persist for long periods of time and given labour market imperfections it may mean that mobility of workers between firms is impaired, thus leading to growing wage disparities (Criscuolo et al., 2020). I test this explanation using a large sample of firms from comprehensive firm-level data.