Essays in Applied Microeconomics: crime, wage inequality and the financial crisis

应用微观经济学论文：犯罪、工资不平等和金融危机

• 批准号: 2888656
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Royal Holloway University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2888656
• 关键词: Essays; Applied; Microeconomics; crime; wage

My proposed research agenda combines two strands. In projects 1 & 2, I investigate potential reasons and remedies for criminal offences in the UK which have risen by over 50% since 2014 and are predicted to rise further (ONS, 2022). In the second strand (project 3), I expand research started during my Master, to explain the mechanisms behind the widely documented, long-term positive trend in wage inequality (Schaefer and Singleton, 2020).Throughout my PhD, I employ advanced quantitative methods - including recent advances in difference-in-difference methods. Innovative, large data coupled with developments in causal inference and spatial econometrics provides new opportunities to study these phenomena. I aim to provide new evidence on the determinants of crime and wage inequality, particularly in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Project 1 investigates the impact of local funding allocations for charitable events and projects on crime rates. Local government funding cuts to public finances have resulted in closures of youth centres and private funding for charities providing similar services is under financial pressure. Advocates of community interventions to prevent youth crime argue that the closure of youth centres has reduced educational support, mentoring and mental health support for young people, resulting in higher rates of youth crimes. I expect that more generous and longer-term projects aimed at improving the human capital and labour mobility of youths have a more persistent effect on crime.I use granular level information on local projects funded by the National lottery and local area police crime data to investigate whether service provision for young people causally affects the local incidence of crime. The project will illustrate the advantage of improving such local services - either via directed local government funding or via measures to stimulate charitable giving to local charities that are aware of the needs of different communities - to tackle crime, creating a pathway to impact. In project 2, I use similar data to estimate the impact of the financial crisis on the relationship between unemployment and crime. Macroeconomic shocks such as recessions or periods of high unemployment make the expected benefits of illegal activities relative larger increasing criminal activity. Unfavourable local economic opportunities in some areas may partially explain the geographic variation in crime rates. I therefore investigate how much of the variation in crime is due to local area factors, particularly unemployment, and whether the rising crime rate can be in part explained by a fundamental change in the link between unemployment and crime during the Great Recession. This project links into the governments' "Levelling Up" agenda and sheds light on whether there is a need for more specific interventions tailored to local communities. The third project concerns wage inequality. A major driver of the growth in wage inequality are rising differences in average wages between firms in the same industry (Faggio et al., 2010). Especially since the financial crisis, labour productivity differences between firms have also grown. There may be mechanisms that explain both phenomena. Market competition leads to resources being reallocated from less to more efficient firms (Coad, 2007). More productive enterprises survive and grow, while those at the bottom of the productivity distribution are more likely to shrink or stagnate. If this selection process has been impaired, perhaps due to a lack of capital mobility following the financial crisis, then difference between firms may persist for long periods of time and given labour market imperfections it may mean that mobility of workers between firms is impaired, thus leading to growing wage disparities (Criscuolo et al., 2020). I test this explanation using a large sample of firms from comprehensive firm-level data.

我提出的研究议程结合了两个方面。在项目 1 和 2 中，我调查了英国刑事犯罪的潜在原因和补救措施，自 2014 年以来，英国刑事犯罪增加了 50% 以上，并且预计将进一步增加（ONS，2022）。在第二部分（项目 3）中，我扩展了硕士期间开始的研究，以解释广泛记录的工资不平等长期积极趋势背后的机制（Schaefer 和 Singleton，2020）。在我的博士学位期间，我采用了先进的定量方法 - 包括双重差分方法的最新进展。创新的大数据加上因果推理和空间计量经济学的发展为研究这些现象提供了新的机会。我的目标是提供关于犯罪和工资不平等的决定因素的新证据，特别是在金融危机之后。项目 1 调查当地慈善活动和项目资金分配对犯罪率的影响。地方政府削减公共财政资金导致青年中心关闭，提供类似服务的慈善机构的私人资金也面临财务压力。支持社区干预措施预防青少年犯罪的人士认为，青少年中心的关闭减少了对青少年的教育支持、指导和心理健康支持，导致青少年犯罪率上升。我预计旨在改善年轻人人力资本和劳动力流动性的更慷慨、更长期的项目会对犯罪产生更持久的影响。我使用国家彩票资助的当地项目的详细信息和当地警察犯罪数据来调查为年轻人提供的服务是否会因果影响当地的犯罪发生率。该项目将展示改善此类当地服务的优势——无论是通过地方政府的定向资助，还是通过采取措施刺激向了解不同社区需求的当地慈善机构提供慈善捐赠——以打击犯罪，创造影响力。在项目2中，我使用类似的数据来估计金融危机对失业与犯罪之间关系的影响。经济衰退或高失业率等宏观经济冲击使非法活动的预期收益相对较大，犯罪活动不断增加。某些地区不利的当地经济机会可能部分解释了犯罪率的地理差异。因此，我调查了犯罪率的变化在多大程度上是由当地因素（尤其是失业）造成的，以及犯罪率上升是否可以部分归因于大衰退期间失业与犯罪之间联系的根本变化。该项目与政府的“升级”议程相联系，并揭示是否需要针对当地社区采取更具体的干预措施。第三个项目涉及工资不平等。工资不平等加剧的一个主要驱动因素是同一行业企业之间平均工资差异的不断扩大（Faggio 等，2010）。特别是金融危机以来，企业之间的劳动生产率差异也越来越大。可能存在解释这两种现象的机制。市场竞争导致资源从效率较低的公司重新分配到效率较高的公司（Coad，2007）。生产力较高的企业能够生存并发展，而处于生产力分布底部的企业则更有可能萎缩或停滞。如果这种选择过程受到损害，可能是由于金融危机后缺乏资本流动性，那么企业之间的差异可能会持续很长一段时间，并且考虑到劳动力市场的不完善，这可能意味着企业之间工人的流动性受到损害，从而导致工资差距扩大（Criscuolo等，2020）。我使用来自综合公司级数据的大量公司样本来检验这一解释。