Essays in Applied Microeconomics: crime, wage inequality and the financial crisis

应用微观经济学论文：犯罪、工资不平等和金融危机

• 批准号: 2888656
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Royal Holloway University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2888656
• 关键词: Essays; Applied; Microeconomics; crime; wage

My proposed research agenda combines two strands. In projects 1 & 2, I investigate potential reasons and remedies for criminal offences in the UK which have risen by over 50% since 2014 and are predicted to rise further (ONS, 2022). In the second strand (project 3), I expand research started during my Master, to explain the mechanisms behind the widely documented, long-term positive trend in wage inequality (Schaefer and Singleton, 2020).Throughout my PhD, I employ advanced quantitative methods - including recent advances in difference-in-difference methods. Innovative, large data coupled with developments in causal inference and spatial econometrics provides new opportunities to study these phenomena. I aim to provide new evidence on the determinants of crime and wage inequality, particularly in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Project 1 investigates the impact of local funding allocations for charitable events and projects on crime rates. Local government funding cuts to public finances have resulted in closures of youth centres and private funding for charities providing similar services is under financial pressure. Advocates of community interventions to prevent youth crime argue that the closure of youth centres has reduced educational support, mentoring and mental health support for young people, resulting in higher rates of youth crimes. I expect that more generous and longer-term projects aimed at improving the human capital and labour mobility of youths have a more persistent effect on crime.I use granular level information on local projects funded by the National lottery and local area police crime data to investigate whether service provision for young people causally affects the local incidence of crime. The project will illustrate the advantage of improving such local services - either via directed local government funding or via measures to stimulate charitable giving to local charities that are aware of the needs of different communities - to tackle crime, creating a pathway to impact. In project 2, I use similar data to estimate the impact of the financial crisis on the relationship between unemployment and crime. Macroeconomic shocks such as recessions or periods of high unemployment make the expected benefits of illegal activities relative larger increasing criminal activity. Unfavourable local economic opportunities in some areas may partially explain the geographic variation in crime rates. I therefore investigate how much of the variation in crime is due to local area factors, particularly unemployment, and whether the rising crime rate can be in part explained by a fundamental change in the link between unemployment and crime during the Great Recession. This project links into the governments' "Levelling Up" agenda and sheds light on whether there is a need for more specific interventions tailored to local communities. The third project concerns wage inequality. A major driver of the growth in wage inequality are rising differences in average wages between firms in the same industry (Faggio et al., 2010). Especially since the financial crisis, labour productivity differences between firms have also grown. There may be mechanisms that explain both phenomena. Market competition leads to resources being reallocated from less to more efficient firms (Coad, 2007). More productive enterprises survive and grow, while those at the bottom of the productivity distribution are more likely to shrink or stagnate. If this selection process has been impaired, perhaps due to a lack of capital mobility following the financial crisis, then difference between firms may persist for long periods of time and given labour market imperfections it may mean that mobility of workers between firms is impaired, thus leading to growing wage disparities (Criscuolo et al., 2020). I test this explanation using a large sample of firms from comprehensive firm-level data.

我提出的研究议程结合了两条链。在第1和2项目中，我调查了英国刑事犯罪的潜在原因和补救措施，自2014年以来已上涨了50％以上，预计将进一步上升（ONS，2022年）。在第二链（项目3）中，我扩大了硕士学位的研究，以解释工资不平等的广泛记录，长期积极趋势背后的机制（Schaefer and Singleton，2020年）。通过我的博士学位，我采用了先进的定量方法 - 包括近期差异方法的最新进步。创新的大数据以及因果推理和空间计量经济学的发展提供了研究这些现象的新机会。我的目标是提供有关犯罪和工资不平等的决定因素的新证据，特别是在金融危机之后。项目1调查了当地资助分配对慈善事件和项目对犯罪率的影响。削减公共财政资金已导致关闭青年中心，并为提供类似服务的慈善机构提供私人资金。倡导社区干预以防止青年犯罪的人认为，关闭青年中心的关闭减少了对年轻人的教育支持，指导和心理健康支持，从而导致了更高的青年犯罪率。我预计，旨在改善人力资本和年轻人的劳动力流动性的更慷慨和长期的项目对犯罪的影响更加持久。我对国家彩票和当地警察犯罪数据资助的当地项目使用详细的信息来调查年轻人为当地犯罪发生的年轻人的服务提供。该项目将说明改善此类当地服务的优势 - 通过有指导的地方政府资助或通过刺激意识到不同社区需求的当地慈善机构的慈善捐赠的措施，以解决犯罪，创造影响途径。在项目2中，我使用类似的数据来估计金融危机对失业与犯罪之间关系的影响。诸如衰退或高失业率之类的宏观经济冲击使非法活动的预期益处相对增加，从而增加了犯罪活动。在某些地区不利的当地经济机会可能会部分解释犯罪率的地理差异。因此，我调查了犯罪的差异有多少是由于地区因素，尤其是失业率，以及犯罪率上升是否可以部分解释，这是由于大萧条期间失业与犯罪之间的联系的根本变化。该项目链接到政府的“升级”议程，并阐明是否需要针对当地社区量身定制的更具体的干预措施。第三个项目涉及工资不平等。工资不平等增长的主要驱动力是同一行业中公司之间平均工资的差异增加（Faggio等，2010）。尤其是自金融危机以来，公司之间的劳动生产率差异也在增长。可能有一些机制来解释这两种现象。市场竞争导致资源从更少到更高效的公司重新分配（Coad，2007年）。生产力更高的企业生存和增长，而生产率分布底部的企业更有可能收缩或停滞。如果这种选择过程受到损害，可能是由于财务危机后缺乏资本流动性，那么公司之间的差异可能会长时间持续存在，并且给定劳动力市场不完美，这可能意味着企业之间工人的流动性受到损害，从而导致工资差异的日益增长（Criscuolo，Criscuolo，2020年）。我使用来自综合公司级数据的大量公司测试了这一说明。