Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Chinese RMB Transmission to Flexible Foreign Exchange Rate System on Trade Relations in Asian Region

2008年世界金融危机后，世界经济总体呈现缓慢增长或负增长，而中国经济仍在快速增长。在这种情况下，美国等国纷纷提出人民币面临强大的升值压力。从实证研究来看，人民币汇率变动对中国经济的影响可能并不强烈。另一方面，政治因素对中国出口贸易有显著影响。从这些发现中，我们可以得出结论，而不是人民币的变化，但政治的不确定性可能是东亚贸易中可能存在的问题。

Chinese economy is still growing rapidly whereas world economy in general is showing slow or negative growing after the world financial crisis in 2008. Under the situation above, US and other countries are mentioning the strong pressure of appreciation on RMB. From the empirical studies, the change of RMB might not have strong effect on Chinese economy. On the other hand, political factors have significant effect on Chinese export. From these findings, we can conclude that not the RMB change but the political uncertainty might be the possible problem in East Asian trade.