Growth and Inflation Dynamics: Measuring Steady-State Growth, Output Gaps and Inflationary Pressures using Survey Data in Australia and Other Advanced Economies

该项目的目的是为澳大利亚和其他发达经济体开发新的“潜在生产”措施。这些措施对于预测衰退和通货膨胀时期以及制定宏观经济政策十分重要。该提案力求通过以下方式解决现有措施的不足之处：㈠从调查数据中纳入对未来产出和通货膨胀预期的直接措施; ㈡与标准经济分析保持一致。形成在政策制定和经济预测中使用调查数据的最佳做法将是该项目的一个重要贡献。

The aim of the project is to develop, for Australia and other advanced economies, new measures of 'potential production'. Such measures are important in the prediction of periods of recession and inflation, and in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. The proposal seeks to address the shortcomings of existing measures by (i) incorporating direct measures of expectations of future output and inflation from survey data, and (ii) being consistent with standard economic analysis. Forming best practice methods in the use of survey data in policy formation and in the production of economic forecasts will be a vital contribution of the project.