Simulation model against transmission of pandemic influenza H1N1

大流行性H1N1流感的传播在青少年中尤为突出。估计了2009年初夏大流行性H1N1流感在日本学龄儿童中暴发的传播系数。使用这个传播系数，我们用一个名为虚拟中央线的虚拟社区模型进行了预测，该模型对东京大都市以西的一个地区进行了模拟。我们使用的模拟方法是基于个体的蒙特卡罗方法。我们寻求能够减缓甲型H1N1流感大流行传播的措施，即使疫苗的供应被推迟了。2010年2月底，日本的流感活动恢复到基线水平。我们对甲型H1N1流感大流行的传播进行了事后分析，根据2月份之前在东京的真实数据对模拟的传播概率进行了校准。

The spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza was prominent among teenagers. The transmission coefficient from outbreaks of pandemic H1N1 influenza among school children in Japan in early summer 2009 was estimated. Using this transmission coefficient, we performed a forecast with a virtual community model called the virtual Chuo Line, which models an area immediately to the west of metropolitan Tokyo. The simulation method we used is an individual-based Monte Carlo method. We sought measures that were able to mitigate the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza, even when the availability of a vaccine was delayed. At the end of February 2010, influenza activity returned to baseline levels in Japan. We conducted a post-analysis of the spread of the pandemic H1N1 influenza calibrating the transmission probabilities of simulation based on real data until February in Tokyo.