Quantitative study on the Rice Acreage Reduction Program and its alternative policies : An political economy approach 8,用紙番号, 1175198

根据政府出版物，水稻种植面积减少方案的名义比率约为40%。本研究通过对各都道府县和选定的农村进行实地调查和直接访谈，估计了农村退休人员的真实的比例。据估计，只有10%是真实的减产率，当取消减产计划时，水稻产量的预期增长只有4。百分之二在这种情况下，大米价格的下降估计为13。百分之四为了在不引起社会动荡的情况下取消这一计划，需要采取适当的收入补偿措施。据估计，固定的直接支付2500日元/60公斤与50%的脱钩度可以维持生产者的盈余作为目前的水平，只需要政府的费用为3840亿日元。

According to the government publications, the nominal rate of the Rice Acreage Reduction Program is approximately 40%. In this study, field surveys and direct interviews were conducted in each prefecture and selcted villages, and a real rate of the RARP were estimated. It is estimated that only 10% is the real rate of the acreage reduction and a predited increase of the rice production when the acreage reduction program would be abolished is only 4. 2%. In this case, the decrease of the rice price is estimated as 13. 4%. In order to abolish the program without turbulence, an appropriate income compensational measure is needed. It is estimated that a fixed direct payment of ￥2500/60kg with the 50% degree of decoupling could sustain producers' surplus as the present level and require the government an expense of only 384 billion yen.