Risk management of Pacific salmon in the Northern Subarctic aquatic ecosystems as ecosystem service

本研究的目的是通过对太平洋鲑鱼（Oncorhynchus spp.）作为亚北冰洋重要物种的生物学研究，探讨其风险管理的框架，包括适应性管理和基于生态系统的预防原则，以及海洋和陆地生态系统之间的相互作用。它们的承载能力与长期气候变化（如PDO和气候变化）有关，并与密度依赖效应有关。大马哈鱼的剩余承载能力与体型呈正相关，与成熟年龄负相关。这说明孵化场种群对野生大马哈鱼的生长模式具有密度依赖性。另一方面，全球变暖影响了鲑鱼幼鱼的生长和生存。野生鲑鱼与孵化场鲑鱼之间的生物相互作用、长期气候变化对太平洋鲑鱼产量趋势的影响、无产卵鱼类对全球物质循环的作用等因素表明，基于生态系统可持续适应性管理和预防原则的风险管理是新渔业科学和水生生态系统保护的重要考虑因素。基于适应性管理和预防原则的风险管理是优先考虑、确定并潜在减轻亚北极北部水生生态系统中各种人类活动造成的影响的一种方法。

The objective of this research is to address the framework of the risk management including the adaptive management and precautionary principle based on the ecosystem through biology of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), which plays an important role as a keystone species in the subarctic ocean and interaction between marine and land ecosystems. Their carrying capacity links with the long-term climate change such as PDO and climate regime-shift, and relates to the density-dependent effect. The residual carrying capacity of chum salmon was positively correlated with body size, while negatively correlated with age at maturity. This indicates the density-dependent effect of hatchery population on growth pattern of wild salmon. On the other hand, the global warming affects growth and survival of juvenile chum salmon. Factors such as the biological interaction between wild and hatchery salmon, the effect of long-term climate change on production trend of Pacific salmon, and the role of anadromous fish on global material circulation suggest that the risk management based on sustainable adaptive management and precautionary principle in ecosystem is a very important consideration for the new fisheries science and the aquatic ecosystem conservation. The risk management based on adaptive management and precautionary principles, is one way to prioritize, identify, and potentially mitigate impacts resulting from diverse human activities in the northern Subarctic aquatic ecosystems.