Economic Crises and Economics: Historical Investigations of Macroeconomic Though and Economic Policy in Japan during the 1970s

笔者从历史的角度对70年代日本宏观经济思想与政策的关系进行了研究。这种研究强调经济史或经济思想史以及经济史。这项研究提出了三套初步结论。首先，1970年的大通货膨胀是在政策制定者和经济学家允许通货膨胀的知识氛围中培育的。特别是，他们担心日元升值对汇率政策的不利影响，并支持扩张性财政政策，以期建立一个“福利国家”。第二，日本银行内部曾有过几种经济思想，但在大通货膨胀之后，稳定物价的思想得到了加强。第三，除了少数人之外，政策制定者和经济学家都认为布雷顿森林体系是理所当然的，并没有认真考虑转向灵活汇率制度的可能性。

I have conducted a research on the relationship between macroeconomic thought and policy in Japan during the 1970s from a historical perspective. This study emphasizes the history of economics or economic thought as well as economic history. This study has produced three sets of tentative conclusions. First, the Great Inflation during the 1970 was fostered in the intellectual atmosphere among the policymakers and economists in which inflation was allowed. Especially, they were fearful about the detrimental effects of the appreciation of the yen in exchange rate policy, and were supportive of expansionary fiscal policy with a view to building a “welfare state”. Secondly, there were several strands of economic thought in the Bank of Japan, but after the Great Inflation, the idea of price stabilization would be strengthend. Thirdly, the policymakers and the economists alike, with the exeption of minority group, took it for granted the Bretton Woods system, and did not take the possibility of moving to a flexible exchange rate system seriously.