Stochastic forecast of pension finance in Japan

首先，本研究旨在利用Okita， Pfau和Long（2011）对未来人口的随机预测，计算日本公共养老金计划财务预测的置信区间。但是，考虑到消费税上调等“税制和社会保障改革”下的制度变化，很难建立可靠的假设。因此，我们在主题中修改了我们的主题，以包括养老金财务的随机分析。这些是对新兴经济体养老金计划中投资组合最优国际多样化的研究。我们进一步研究了学校出勤现金转移计划作为通过老年人福利计划减贫的替代方案。

At first, this research aimed at calculating confidence intervals for financial forecast of public pension schemes in Japan, using stochastic forecast of population in the future obtained in Okita, Pfau and Long (2011). However, due to the expected change of systems under the “Tax and Social Security Reform” including consumption tax rate raise, it became difficult to lay down solid assumptions for the calculation. Thus, we modified our topic within the theme to include stochastic analyses of pension finance. These are the studies of optimal international diversification of investment portfolios in pension schemes of emerging economies. We further studied cash transfer program for school attendance program as an alternative for poverty reduction through welfare programs for elderly.