Research on systematization of decision making elements in Private Finance Initiative projects

本研究通过提取导致民间金融倡议及类似项目过去失败或破裂案例的核心因素，分析了必要的决策要素。具体来说，它分析了伦敦地铁的公私合作项目和福冈城市海洋疗法设施的PFI项目，该项目利用了海滨废物处理设施产生的热量。进一步分析了PFI/PPP项目涉及需求风险的决策问题。由于某些需求风险具有不可量化的不确定性特征，如果将需求的不确定性与决策偏差导致的过度需求预测联系起来，会显著增加金融风险。

The research analyzed the essential decision making elements through extracting the core factors which caused the past failure or breakdown cases of the Private Finance Initiative and its similar projects. Specifically, it analyzed the Public Private Partnerships projects for London Undergrounds and the PFI projects for Fukuoka City Thalasotherapy Facility that utilizes heat generated from the seaside waste treatment facility.Furthermore, it analyzed the problem of decision making of PFI/PPP projects involving demand risks. Because some kind of demand risks have the feature as the uncertainty which cannot be quantified, if the uncertainty of demand and the excessive demand forecasting by the bias of decision makin are connected, it will increase the financial risk remarkably.