Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes

影响社会的不断变化的环境的事件和状态往往会走向极端，这在某种程度上是老生常谈。我的目标是开发一种基于模型的方法来描述气候模型通常无法预测的极端情况。对澳大利亚和世界各地的利益攸关方来说，关键的极端事件包括沿海洪水和火灾。在区域气候变化的背景下，这些事件将作为该方法的检验案例。通过这项工作，可以评估未来发生与政策相关的事件的可能性，并对不确定性进行强有力的评估。

It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate variation, will act as test cases for the methodology. From this work, the likelihood of policy-relevant events in the future can be evaluated, with a robust assessment of the uncertainty.