Exchange rate regime choice and economic performances: An empirical study using microeconometric methods

本研究使用微观计量经济学方法评估汇率制度对经济绩效的影响。特别地，我用匹配方法研究了实际汇率制度与宣布的汇率制度的偏差是否会影响货币危机的发生。我发现，与实行其他汇率政策的国家相比，实行一致的钉住汇率制度的国家（即国家实际采用宣布的钉住汇率制度的政策）发生货币危机的可能性要低得多。更有趣的是，我发现，与那些害怕宣布钉住汇率政策的国家相比，实行持续钉住汇率制度的国家发生货币危机的可能性要低得多（即，在这种政策中，国家实际上采用了钉住汇率制度，但并不声称拥有钉住汇率制度）。因此，我从统计上证实，实际汇率制度与公布的汇率制度的偏差显著影响货币危机的发生。

This study evaluates the effects of exchange rate regimes on economic performances using microeconometric methods. Especially, I investigate whether deviations of actual exchange rate regimes from announced regimes affect the occurrence of currency crises using matching methods. I find that countries with consistent pegs (i.e., a policy in which countries actually adopt announced pegged regimes) have a significantly lower probability of currency crises than countries with other exchange rate policies. More interestingly, I find that countries with consistent pegs have a significantly lower probability of currency crises than those with a fear of announcing a peg policy (i.e., a policy in which countries actually adopt pegged regimes but do not claim to have pegged regimes). Therefore, I statistically confirm that deviations of actual exchange rate regimes from announced regimes significantly affect the occurrence of currency crises.