New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models

量化模型对于制定良好的政策至关重要。在一个不断变化的世界中，分析应以允许经济行为随时间变化的模型为基础。然而，由于计算的限制，人们往往局限于线性模型，即使非线性模型更合适。本计画旨在发展新方法以估计时变非线性模型。两个重要的应用程序也被认为是：一个是研究利率的零下限如何影响货币政策的传导机制，以及，其他研究货币和财政政策的不确定性如何影响经济增长和通货膨胀。这一项目对宏观经济政策的实施具有很强的现实意义。

Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.