The initiation, development, and predictability of Mediterranean weather on the synoptic and convective scale leading to extreme events (MED)

该项目的重点是地中海气旋和对流的动态以及决定其可预测性的因素。其主要目标是早期识别导致西地中海盆地高影响天气（风暴、强降水、山洪暴发）的气旋和对流系统。我们的目标是量化的敏感性地中海天气大规模强迫由于上层PV异常相对于区域尺度的影响（对流）潮湿的过程和表面通量。将通过数值模拟研究嵌入式对流和暖传送带在气旋能量和水循环中的作用，以区分有和没有HIW潜力的气旋。网格间距的影响，对流参数化的方法，对流解析方法对流的启动和产生的相互作用与较大的（天气）尺度将进行调查选定的情况下，有和没有HIW事件。利用TIGGE数据库，将分析地中海气旋对初始条件变化的敏感性及其对上游气流的耦合。该项目通过其模型研究，促进并受益于关于地中海水文循环的HYMEX项目。

The project focuses on the dynamics of Mediterranean cyclones and convection and on the factors that determine their predictability. The main goal is the early identification of cyclones and convec-tive systems leading to high impact weather (storms, heavy precipitation, flash floods) in the west-ern Mediterranean basin. We aim at quantifying the sensitivity of Mediterranean weather to large-scale forcing due to upper-level PV anomalies relative to the regional-scale impact of (convective) moist processes and surface fluxes. The role of embedded convection and warm conveyor belts in the energy and water cycle of cyclones will be investigated by numerical modelling in order to dis-tinguish between cyclones with and without potential for HIW. The impact of grid spacing, the method of convection parameterisation, and convection resolving approaches on the initiation of convection and resulting interaction with larger (synoptic) scales will be investigated for selected cases with and without HIW events. Using the TIGGE data base the sensitivity of Mediterranean cyclones on changing initial conditions and their coupling on the upstream flow will be analysed. With its model studies this project contributes to and benefits from the HYMEX project on the hy-drological cycle in the Mediterranean.