Uncertainty and the bioeconomics of near-natural silviculture

“造林学”和“森林经济学”的研究通常在很大程度上是相互独立的。虽然造林主要侧重于生态方面，但森林经济学有时非常理论化。应用的生物经济学模型往往缺乏生物现实主义。调查混交林，这个建议试图改善生物经济模型和不确定性下的优化。检验了树种间相互作用的生物经济模型和风险整合是否会隐含地导致接近自然的林业。在第一部分中，相互依存的树种混合在林分水平的经济后果进行建模。这一部分是基于已发表的文献，木材质量的改进模型和现有的数据抢救收获。一个模型的生存随着年龄的增长，然后开发混合林分。第二部分，然后建立在第一部分中产生的数据，并集中在物种比例和收获年龄的同时优化。它以均值-方差优化作为参考解决方案开始。所得到的结果进行了比较，从其他方法的随机优势，下侧风险和信息差距的鲁棒性的数据。

Research in ‘silviculture’ and ‘forest economics’ very often takes place largely independent from each other. While silviculture predominantly focuses on ecological aspects, forest eco-nomics is sometimes very theoretic. The applied bioeconomic models often lack biological realism. Investigating mixed forests this proposal tries to improve bioeconomic modelling and optimisation under uncertainty. The hypothesis is tested whether or not bioeconomic model-ling of interacting tree species and risk integration would implicitly lead to close-to-nature forestry. In a first part, economic consequences of interdependent tree species mixed at the stand level are modelled. This part is based on published literature, an improved model of timber quality and existing data on salvage harvests. A model of survival over age is then to be developed for mixed stands. A second section then builds upon data generated in part one and concentrates on the simultaneous optimisation of species proportions and harvest-ing ages. It starts with a mean-variance optimisation as a reference solution. The obtained results are compared with data from alternative approaches as stochastic dominance, down-side risk and information-gap robustness.