Predicting coastal ecological futures in an era of unprecedented change

该项目旨在展示我们如何预测沿海栖息地、渔业和生物多样性的未来，并验证这些预测的可靠性。全球变化意味着生态系统的迅速变化超出了历史数据的范围，因此我们无法再通过推断过去的轨迹来预测未来。需要可靠的预测来帮助管理者减轻未来人类活动对环境的风险。预期的结果是改进的预测技术，为生态系统的适应性管理提供信息。预计这将有利于沿海地区的管理，包括渔业和栖息地恢复，这将有助于加强澳大利亚宝贵的海洋经济。

This project aims to show how we can predict the future for coastal habitats, fisheries and biodiversity, and validate the reliability of those predictions. Global change means ecosystems are rapidly changing beyond the bounds of historical data, so we can no longer extrapolate past trajectories to predict the future. Reliable predictions are needed to help managers mitigate the risks of future human activities to the environment. Expected outcomes are improved techniques for making predictions that can inform the adaptive management of ecosystems. This is expected to benefit the management of the coastal zone, including fisheries and habitat restoration, which will contribute to enhancing Australia’s valuable ocean economy.