Seed dispersal, migration and climate induced Range Shifts of plant species

全球气候变化正在严重影响全球范围内的生物多样性。据估计，在未来几十年内，中欧的植被带可能移动到几百公里。然而，如果物种能够足够快地迁徙以跟随潜在的范围变化，目前还没有可用的信息。这个项目的主要目的是在一个基于1的建模框架中预测许多(&gt；1000)中欧植物物种实现的射程转移。由全球变化驱动的生态位模型衍生的潜在物种范围的变化2.基于过程的模拟模型生成的种子传播核心，用于风化、动植物和人类的传播3.基于种子传播核和人口统计参数的迁移率4。根据物种当前的分布和迁移率，将潜在的距离移动与几个IPCC情景下的已实现距离移动进行比较，并分析对生物多样性的影响。

Changes in the global climate are seriously affecting biodiversity on a global scale. For Central Europe it was estimated that vegetation belts may shift up to several 100 km within the next decades (= potential range shift of the species). However, there is currently no information available if species can migrate fast enough to follow the potential range shifts. The main aim of this project is to predict realized range shifts for many (> 1000) Central European plant species in a modeling framework based on1. Shifts of potential species ranges derived from global change-driven ecological niche models 2. Seed dispersal kernels generated by process-based simulation models for anemochory, zoochory and dispersal by humans3. Migration rates based on seed dispersal kernels and demographic parameters4. Realized range shifts based on the current distribution and migration rates of the species The potential range shifts will be compared with realized range shifts for several IPCC scenarios and consequences for biodiversity will be analyzed.