Study on the Protection and Use of Global Land Resources Considering the Life Stile

本研究的主要内容如下：(1)本研究构建的全球环境主要数据库如下：——数字化农业地图集绘制的20世纪60年代土地利用覆盖变化图——Cramer和Solomon方法绘制的耕地潜力分布图——各国人口、GDP、粮食生产率、粮食消费、能源消费、柴火消费和圆木消费。(2)考虑发展、资源和环境权衡的全球土地资源量估算(3)考虑生活方式变化的土地利用覆盖变化估算利用GIS和社会经济数据，从粮食生产力和co2排放的角度分析了人类活动与全球环境变化的关系。在假设人口问题、粮食问题和能源消耗引起的全球变暖可以通过土地利用管理得到稳定的前提下，利用已开发的系统动力学模型分析了粮食、能源和木材消耗等人类活动对全球环境变化的影响，以及全球人口容量。在该模型中，世界被分为两组：经合组织国家和其他国家。使用的全球土地利用数据集为卫星数据获取的土地覆盖图，耕地潜在分布采用Cramer和Solomon方法，考虑降水和蒸散发等气候数据的空间分布。此外，人类活动产生的二氧化碳排放通过全球变暖对粮食生产的影响也作为反馈纳入模型。BaU情景和多伦多会议情景的分析结果与现有模型的结果相似。从研究结果来看，2020年的人类可居住性为80亿人，基于BaU情景和多伦多情景的2020年二氧化碳排放量分别是1986年的1.7倍和1.2倍。利用全局数据分布环境变量和经济指标来提高模型的空间分辨率有待进一步研究。少

The principal contents of this study as follows,(1) Data Base Constnsction on Global Environmentprincipal date base made in this study as foIIows,- Land Use Cover Change Map in 1960's by digitizing Atlas of Agriculture- Potential distribution of arable land by the method of Cramer and Solomon- Population , GDP, food Productivity, food consumption, energy consumption, fire wood consumption and round wood consumption per country.(2) Estimation of Amount of Global Land Resources Considering Trade off Development, Resources and Environment(3) Estimation of Land Use Cover Change Considering Change of Life StyleUsing GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change is Analysed from the view point of food productivity and C02 emission. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption o … More f food, energy and timber on global environment changes, and global population capacity are Analysed using developed system dynamics model in the research. In the model the world is divided into two groups : OECD countries and the others. Used global land use data set is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Cramer and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of C02 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback.The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and Toronto Conference scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, the human habitability in 2020 is 8 billion people, and C02 emission in 2020 based on BaU Scenario and on Toronto Scenario is 1.7 and 1.2 times more than the 1986's respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for flurther studies. Less